Best NBA prop bets today for Celtics vs. Heat (Trust Tyler Herro's Usage)

NBA player props and prop bets for Game 4 of Heat vs. Celtics, including what the underlying metrics say about Tyler Herro's passing.
Apr 27, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) drives to the basket as Boston
Apr 27, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) drives to the basket as Boston / Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The Heat are searching for answers after a 20-point loss, and we have player props for you. 

Tyler Herro couldn’t get on track after a stellar outing in Game 2, but are the underlying metrics indicating that his assist number is not high enough? I’m also eyeing Nikola Jovic’s usage as an emerging piece in the Heat rotation this series. 

Here’s my three favorite player props in Monday’s Game 5. 

New FanDuel Sportsbook users, sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets as soon as you make a first bet of just $5! Get started below!

Best Player Prop Bets for Celtics vs. Heat Game 4

  • Nikola Jovic OVER 1.5 3s made
  • Tyler Herro OVER 5.5 assists
  • Haywood Highsmith UNDER 11.5 points + rebounds + assist

Nikola Jovic OVER 1.5 3s made

The Heat continue to lean into the 3-point shot in this series in hopes of out-shooting the Celtics, and Jovic has showed up in that regard. 

The rookie has made two or more 3s in each game this series, shooting a total of 8/15 from beyond the arc. 

He also saw an uptick in minutes last game, going from about 26 minutes in Game 1 and Game 2 to 34 in Game 3, scoring a personal series high 15 points. 

I believe the rookie who shot about 40% from deep in the regular season keeps getting usage and clears this number like each game this series. 

Tyler Herro OVER 5.5 assists

Herro struggled in Game 3, playing only 33 minutes while scoring 15 points with two rebounds and two assists, but some of his numbers were due to poor variance. 

Herro is averaging 12 potential assists in this series as he has taken the reigns as the lead ball handler on the team with Jimmy Butler injured, but the Miami team hasn’t cashed in on his passes. 

In Game 2, when the Heat shot lights out en route to victory, Herro had 14 assists. While he may not put up a total like that, I think the usage is there to go over this mark.

Haywood Highsmith UNDER 12.5 points + rebounds + assist

Delon Wright didn’t play in Game 3, leading to more minutes for Haywood Highsmith, who scored eight points with three rebounds and five assists in a series high 32 minutes. 

I believe we see Highsmith go back to the mid 20’s in terms of minutes and he goes back to a quiet outing. 

Highsmith averaged five shots in the first two games and was -15 on the floor, so I expect Erik Spoelstra to go back to Wright in place of Highsmith, potentially at a heavy rate (Wright is probable for this game). 

While he is a decent 3-point shooter, he has missed all six of his tries outside of an outlier 60% shooting night in Game 2. 

I simply don’t believe the usage is there for him to get over this one. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.