Best NBA prop bets today for Warriors vs. Heat (Bam Adebayo should dominate down low)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Miami Heat-Golden State Warriors matchup in the NBA on Tuesday.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo.
Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo. / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami Heat find themselves in an unfavorable spot as home underdogs on Tuesday night against the Golden State Warriors.

Miami is just 1-7 against the spread as home dogs this season, so I’d rather look to the prop market to wager on the Heat rather than go against one of the strongest betting trends in the NBA. 

There is certainly some value to be had for Miami with Tyler Herro out and Jaime Jaquez Jr. questionable, and there are two Heat players I believe are worth a wager in the prop market tonight. 

Plus, Golden State star Steph Curry has an unusual prop that could be a winner – and it may not upset Heat fans if he gets it. 

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Let’s dive into these picks for Tuesday night’s showdown: 

Warriors vs. Heat best NBA prop bets

  • Bam Adebayo OVER 18.5 points
  • Steph Curry OVER 8.5 rebounds and assists
  • Terry Rozier UNDER 23.5 points and assists

Bam Adebayo OVER 18.5 points

I love Bam Adebayo’s points prop in this game, as Golden State allows the eighth-most points per game to opposing centers in the NBA this season. 

The Warriors are also 17th in the league in points in the paint allowed per game, so don’t be shocked if Adebayo goes to work down low. He was held to 17 points in the first meeting between these teams, but he took only 13 shots (7-for-13 from the field). With Tyler Herro out, Bam could see some more looks tonight. 

Over his last five games, Adebayo has scored 20 or more points three times, averaging 19.7 points per game overall this season. 

Steph Curry OVER 8.5 rebounds and assists

This is a sneaky prop bet for Curry, who is usually looked at for his shooting and scoring prowess.

On the season, Curry is averaging 4.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game (9.4 rebounds and assists), yet he’s set at just 8.5 for his line in this one. 

Curry has cleared 8.5 rebounds and assists in 12 of his last 18 games, averaging 4.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game over that stretch. In his first meeting with the Heat, Curry had four rebounds and five dimes, enough to clear this prop. 

Don’t be shocked if he goes over this on Tuesday. 

Terry Rozier UNDER 23.5 points and assists

I’m fading Terry Rozier tonight, as the Heat guard simply hasn’t put up big enough scoring – or assist – numbers to be trusted at this number. 

Since joining Miami, Rozier has cleared 23.5 points and assists just six times in 24 games. He’s averaging 15.5 points and 5.1 assists per game over that stretch. 

Plus, he’s gone over this prop thrice since the All-Star break, scoring 17, 24, and 27 points in those games. Unless Rozier has a big scoring night, he’s doubtful (hitting UNDER 75 percent of the time) to go OVER this prop in a Miami uniform.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.