Best NBA prop bets today for Heat vs. Mavericks (Jimmy Butler should thrive vs. Dallas)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Dallas Mavericks-Miami Heat matchup in the NBA on Thursday.

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) dribbles the ball up court.
Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) dribbles the ball up court. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks meet for the first time in the 2023-24 season on Thursday night on TNT, and Miami is down a few key players in this matchup. 

The Heat won’t have Tyler Herro, Kevin Love or Josh Richardson, opening up some chances in the prop market for players who will fill some of their roles. 

Plus, there is a Dallas role player that I think is undervalued in this game – specifically in his 3-point prop.

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Let’s dive into the best prop bets to place in Heat-Mavs on Thursday: 

Heat vs. Mavericks best NBA prop bets 

  • Jimmy Butler OVER 22.5 points
  • Josh Green OVER 0.5 3-pointers made
  • Duncan Robinson OVER 2.5 rebounds

Jimmy Butler OVER 22.5 points

Miami star Jimmy Butler has scored 21 or more points in five straight games, including three games where he went OVER this number. 

Dallas has struggled defensively over the last 10 games, ranking 23rd in the league in defensive rating, and Butler could be in line for a big scoring game with Herro out. 

Last game, Butler put up 26 points on just 13 shots (he made 11-of-12 free throws), but he’d taken 17 or more shots in his two previous games. 

Butler is averaging 21.9 points per game overall, but he’s averaged 23.9 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.8 rebounds in 20 games without Herro this season. Take him to go OVER tonight. 

Josh Green OVER 0.5 3-pointers made

Dallas guard Josh Green has seen his role decrease with the Mavericks bringing in PJ Washington – and Kyrie Irving getting healthy – but I still think he’s undervalued to hit a 3-pointer tonight.

Despite not seeing a ton of shots, Green has been efficient when he gets them, shooting 40.8 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The former first-round pick has made a 3-pointer in seven of his last 10 games and 12 of his last 15. Over that 15-game stretch, he is shooting 45.5 percent from 3 on 3.7 attempts per game. 

Plus, Miami ranks 20th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game this season. 

I am worried about volume for Green, but if he takes multiple shots from beyond the arc, he’s a terrific bet. Of the three games Green missed this line, two came when he attempted just one shot from deep. 

Duncan Robinson OVER 2.5 rebounds

This is a weird prop to bet for Duncan Robinson, but it’s one that I really like in this matchup against Dallas.

The Mavs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 27th in the NBA in rebounding percentage. 

That sets up well for everyone on Miami, especially Robinson who is undervalued in this prop. 

The Heat sharpshooter has at least three boards in five straight games, and he should play a major role again tonight with Richardson and Herro out. I’ll take a shot on Duncan to hit this prop even though he’s not known as a rebounder.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.