Deep dive into how the Miami Heat's offense has changed over the years

In the last two seasons, the Miami Heat have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Even beyond the usual offensive rating numbers, they looked bad. There was too much stagnant offense, a lot more isolation and post ups, shot profile resembling a team from the mid 2000s, and it revolves around producing a bunch of inefficient looks. But it wasn’t always like this. Their offense wasn’t always in the mud.

Here are the Heat’s offensive ratings -- overall and in the half-court -- over the last five seasons, per Cleaning the Glass

• 2020: 112.9 overall ORTG (7th) / 98.9 half court ORTG (3rd)

• 2021: 111.9 (17th) / 97.5 (12th)

• 2022: 114.2 (11th) / 97.6 (11th)

• 2023: 113.3 (25th) / 96.7 (23rd)

• 2024: 114.4 (21st) / 99.6 (13th)

That 2020 season is like a polar bear in Arlington, Texas.

What is different about this team and one that was third in half-court offense? Is it as simple Jimmy Butler playing better? Is it Duncan Robinson having one of the most efficient shooting seasons in NBA history? Or was assistant coach Dan Craig behind it all, and he took the offense to Los Angeles when he left?

On that note, it does *kind of* make sense when you look the team’s rankings on defense and offense. Erik Spoelstra is an elite, *elite* defensive coach and I would trust that man to build an elite defense with me as the starting guard!

Which is why out of 16 years, he had 13(!) seasons in the top 10, five seasons in the top 5, and only *one* season below average. But when you look at offense, nine out of 16 are below average, only five in the top 10, and five in the bottom 10.

Because there’s nothing else going on in the NBA world (Stephen Curry getting extended for one year was the highlight of the week), I ended up going down rabbit holes and looking at all kinds of stats.

How often the Heat use different play types... How efficient they were in those play types... The tracking stats for both team and the players... The touches... The passes... The shot profile. All of the main indicators of what and how the offense was run.

So, let’s review all of that and see how it has combined to contribute to their lackluster offense in the last two seasons.

Some notes regarding the stats:

• Play type stats are from NBA Stats

• Shot profile with the rim, short mid-range, long mid-range, 3pt stats are from PBP Stats

• Pull-up and catch-and-shoot stats are from NBA Stats

• Advanced stats are from NBA Stats

• Tracking stats for drives, passes, touches are from NBA Stats

• The ranks in the playoffs are where they’d rank in that particular season

• /100 is per 100 possessions

• Potential assists = any pass to a teammate who shoots within 1 dribble of receiving the ball

• Secondary assists = A player is awarded a secondary assist if they passed the ball to a player who recorded an assist within 1 second and without dribbling

Play type frequency

There are already major points that stand out regarding what has drastically changed with their offense. Look at their frequency of isolations and post-ups in each regular season. They have been trending upwards with more self-creation.

7.4% → 8.1% → 10.9% → 10.9% → 12.7%

But that play type will always be the least efficient action. There’s no need for analytics here. I’m sure you always heard whether it’s from professional coaches or even from your experience playing at *any* level of basketball. Move the ball! You will get better looks off movement and passing than stationary, off-the-dribble basketball. Constant movement will be more difficult to defend than focusing on one player.

Look at their off-ball frequency (Spot ups, handoffs, off-ball screens, cuts):

43.0% → 44.4% → 41.9% → 40.9% → 40.8%

One of the main things that most fans would remember from the 2020 offense was the constant handoffs. That has been the staple of the offense. They ranked 11th this year. Not once before they ranked lower than 4th. All of that adds up. It makes the offense stagnant. I’m sure you remember all of the possessions with either Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler holding the ball while everyone else watched.