Deep dive into how the Miami Heat's offense has changed over the years

Shot profile

The glaring change is that rim efficiency. As much as the Heat’s rim pressure issues have been talked about, their efficiency at the rim is arguably more important.

Here’s a scatter plot of teams’ rim shot frequency and their rim shot FG% vs their offensive rating in the last five seasons:

There’s not much correlation with frequency. Teams can have a very efficient offense without getting shots at the rim at a high rate (rim pressure doesn’t always = shots at the rim).

You need to make shots at the rim, though. They should be the easiest and most efficient looks that you could get. Even the teams that don’t get many shots at the rim (Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Boston Celtics) tend to convert when they get there.

Notice where the Heat ranked in 2020 and 2021. They were one of the best. They’re near the bottom this year. Not only do they struggle to get to the rim, they also struggle to make shots once they’re there!

Although this is more about the frequency, it’s still connected. But the reason for such a drop-off in rim efficiency is that the team’s best rim finisher (Adebayo) has gone away from the rim. Now, you combine the fact that your guards and wings are struggling, and you get that poor efficiency.

Regarding Adebayo (who is the main culprit), there has been a shift towards taking more short mid-range shots (4-14ft per PBP stats). In 2020 and 2021, approximately 18% of the shots were taken from that area, but in 2023 and 2024, this figure increased to over 26%.

(This is also a big reason why they’re at the top in catch-and-shoot 2s being taken. It’s a low number in a vacuum, but it’s one of the highest relative to the league.)

The Heat get a huge amount of their shots in the short mid-range area.

• 24.8% at the rim

• 27.6% in the short mid-range

• 8.2% in the long mid-range

• 11.7% from corner 3pt

• 27.6% from above the break 3pt

They’re also among the top five in efficiency in that area. That’s great, right?

Wrong.

The issue is that being great from that spot means shooting 47.3%, which is 0.946 points per shot. Their most common shot is below-average efficiency. No other team has that profile.

Out of the last 10 years, the Heat have the fourth-highest short mid-range frequency (Grizzlies in 2021 and 2022, Suns in 2022 are ahead). On top of that, the Heat had one of six seasons where the short mid-range frequency was higher than at the rim. Here’s those team’s ORTG:

• Utah Jazz 2024: 115.7 (18th)

• Phoenix Suns 2023: 115.5 (15th)

• Miami Heat 2023: 113.7 (25th)

• Phoenix Suns 2022: 115.6 (4th)

• Memphis Grizzlies 2021: 112.8 (15th)

• San Antonio Spurs 2019: 113.5 (6th)

Only two teams had an above average offense and both either finished at the rim at a good level or had the best 3pt shooting. It’s not a good blueprint to have, though.

One encouraging point is that Miami consistently generates a high number of corner 3s. They were second this year, and their lowest was fourth in 2021!