Hawks vs. Heat NBA expert prediction and odds for Friday, Jan. 19 (Keep fading Atlanta)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Heat's matchup with the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night.
Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo.
Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

For the third time this season, the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks face off in a Southeast Division clash, but this will be the first time that Atlanta has to face Jimmy Butler. 

The Heat star has been solid in his last two games since returning from a toe injury, and Miami’s hoping to make a run up the Eastern Conference standings now that he’s back. The team sits in the No. 6 seed in the conference so far this season. 

Atlanta is under .500 on the season and could be an active squad at the deadline if it looks to rebuild this roster around Trae Young. The Hawks are the No. 10 seed in the East, but they do come into this matchup on a two-game winning streak. 

Before you consider wagering on this matchup, let’s break down the odds and my best bet for Friday’s divisional battle. 

Hawks vs. Heat odds, spread and total

Hawks vs. Heat how to watch

  • Date: Friday, Jan. 19
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Kaseya Center
  • How to watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, NBA League Pass
  • Hawks record: 17-23
  • Heat record: 24-17

Hawks vs. Heat injury reports

Hawks injury report

  • Trae Young – questionable
  • Kobe Bufkin – out
  • De’Andre Hunter – out
  • Mouhamed Gueye – out
  • Wesley Matthews – out
  • Vit Krejci – out

Heat injury report

  • Jamal Cain – out
  • R.J. Hampton – out
  • Jaime Jaquez Jr. – doubtful
  • Kevin Love – questionable
  • Dru Smith – out

Hawks vs. Heat key players to watch

Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young: Young is questionable in this game, but the star guard has been terrific, putting up four double-doubles in his last five games. In his career against Miami, Young hasn't been as great, averaging 22.2 points, 8.7 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game in 19 games. 

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler: Jimmy Butler has been back for two games from a toe injury, and he’s put up 31 and 16 points in those two games. Miami is 1-1 in those matchups, but the team is clearly better when Butler is on the floor. With rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. doubtful, Butler should handle a major workload again on Friday. 

Hawks vs. Heat prediction and pick

There isn’t a team in the NBA worse against the spread than the Atlanta Hawks this season. 

Atlanta is just 10-30 ATS in its first 40 games, the worst mark through 40 games in the last 30 years of the NBA!

Now, the team is a 6.5-point dog to the Heat with Young questionable on Friday. This is an invitation to fade the Hawks, who are just 4-9 against the spread as road dogs this season. 

The Heat haven’t been great when favored at home, covering the spread in just eight of 15 games, but the team should get a boost with Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo all expected to play. 

The Heat have won both matchups between these teams this season (one by eight points and another by nine points) and Butler didn’t play in either game. Miami could be undervalued in this matchup at the current number. 

Give me the Heat to win and cover against this underperforming Atlanta squad. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.