The Miami Heat have been in the bottom 10 in ORTG for the last two seasons and could be on their way to three.
It’s difficult for a team to dramatically change its results without a dramatic change to the roster, and the Heat will enter next season with the same core as the past two seasons. The offense – again – will sink or swim with Jimmy Butler’s level of engagement and rely – again – on individual improvements from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
One way to help nudge the offense in a more efficient direction is by adjusting where the team takes shots, especially swapping out some inefficient mid-range looks for shots beyond the arc and at the rim.
If the Miami Heat want to improve their ORTG from last season, it starts with turning mid-range shots into more 3-pointers.
The problem with getting more shots at the basket? The Heat don’t have many guys who can get there consistently. Butler will be 35 and may not be looking for that wear and tear. Herro doesn’t have the athleticism. Adebayo lacks the handle to drive through traffic.
The Heat do, however, have the personnel to take more shots from beyond the arc. By taking a few steps back and prioritizing the 3-point line, the Heat could return to the top half of the league in ORTG.
Need proof? Look at the 2021-22 season, when Miami finished 12th in ORTG. The Heat that season were fourth in 3-pointers made per possession. It helped that they made a league-leading 38% of their 3s that season, but they also ranked 14th in 3-point attempts per game.
The Heat dropped to 14th in 3-pointers made per possession the following season and 15th last season. Part of that decline is related to an expected drop in overall 3-point percentage, but the Heat also took fewer 3s relative to the rest of the league, dropping to 18th in 3-point attempts per game last season.
Erik Spoelstra has talked about a target number of 40 3-point attempts per game. That would have ranked second in the league last season and much more than the 33.7 Miami got up last season.
Figuring out how to get up more shots from beyond the arc will be a priority this upcoming season. Part of that equation is reducing the amount of long 2s. The Heat led the league in mid-range shooting frequency, so much so that generating an efficient offense became nearly impossible.
Shooting 45% from the mid-range might seem great, but not when more than a third of your shots come from that area and are still only worth two points. Shots at the rim are also worth two points, but shooting 45% at the basket is considered poor. The best offenses shot 38% from 3-point range last season, but those shots are worth an extra point. Do that math: 38% of 100 3-pointers = 114 points. 45% of 100 2-pointers = 90 points.
Here are the NBA’s top offenses (by ORTG) last season and where they rank in mid-range attempt frequency, per Cleaning the Glass.
Team | ORTG Rank | Mid-range Freq. Rank |
|---|---|---|
Boston Celtics | 1 | 29 |
Indiana Pacers | 2 | 23 |
Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 9 |
So how do the Heat generate more 3s and fewer long 2s while returning a mostly unchanged roster?
It starts with the highest-usage players. Fortunately, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are already stepping out a bit more. Butler averaged a Heat-tenure high 3-point attempts last season and Adebayo has begun experimenting more with a 3-point shot dating back to the end of last season and over the summer for Team USA.
Tyler Herro also needs to turn down the mid-range shots and be more willing to accept catch-and-shoot attempts from 3-point range. Again, there were promising signs toward the end of last season. After returning from a knee injury, Herro was openly embracing an off-ball role before injuries to teammates thrust him back onto the ball for the Heat’s playoff series against the Boston Celtics.
"I'm trying to sacrifice how I play to fit the team and try to be more of a catch-and-shoot guy to fit the offense," Herro said during the season before injuries sidelined Butler, Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson.
While asking Butler and Bam to suddenly transform into Paul George and Karl-Anthony Towns in terms of 3-point frequency is unrealistic, it is fair to ask Herro to turn the dials in a more Klay Thompson-like direction.
Herro is a top-1% catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter, posting comparable percentages to Thompson and Steph Curry but lagging in volume.
Shooting 3s off the catch: Herro vs Thompson and Curry
Tyler Herro | Klay Thompson | Steph Curry | |
|---|---|---|---|
2023-24 | 43% (4.1 attempts) | 38.1% (7.1) | 44.8% (5.5) |
2022-23 | 38.3% (4.1) | 41.4% (7.8) | 41.6% (5.1) |
2021-22 | 42.2% (3.2) | 36.4% (6.5) | 39% (5.0) |
Herro is quite literally one of the best 3-point shooters in the sport with elite range to stretch any defense, but he averaged nearly as many 3-point attempts as De’Aaron Fox last season (7.9). There’s no reason Herro shouldn’t be taking 10-plus 3s per game, with at least 70% coming off the catch.
We can dilly-dally with guys like Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. or even a willing 3-point-shooting center like Kel’el Ware, but Miami's volume won’t be enough to change the outlook of the offense in a meaningful way.
It’s the players doing the most who need to change the most. There are positive signs that they have already started, but they need to keep pushing in that direction.