Tyler Herro's comments on starting or coming off the bench will surely dominate the headlines, but another quote lit up the lightbulb in my brain. He was speaking about him and Terry Rozier collaborating on ways they could share the ball together.
" I think I'll play off the ball a little bit more than I have in the past," Herro said. "I've worked on that all summer."
Herro: "I think I'll play off the ball a little bit more than I have in the past."
— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) September 30, 2024
That quote is music to my ears. It's one of the most encouraging signs that the Heat can trend toward a positive offense. I've clamored for Tyler Herro to lean into a Boston Celtics Ray Allen/Klay Thompson role. He's an elite range shooter and has useful handles. Shooting more threes and attacking off the catch would be more prominent, with Herro playing off the ball. He didn't quite say he'd be turning into Klay or old Ray, but the possibility of it is hopeful.
According to PBP stats, Herro created 61% of his field goal attempts in 2024. PBP stats define self-created shots as shots on which the player held the ball for two or more seconds before the shot. For context, Klay Thompson only created 27% of his shots during the Golden State Warriors 73-9 regular season. Herro is a better shot creator and has tighter handles than Peak Klay, so it makes sense that he creates more for himself, but the 34% difference is staggering. More Klay than Milwakee Ray, please.
The math doesn't add up with Herro's current shot diet, especially considering how lethal a 3-point shooter he is. 44% of his shot attempts were midrange shots last season. Herro is virtually creating all of these looks himself. When teams run him off the 3-point line, he frequently up fakes and gets to his midrange spot. He's one of the world's best shooters, so he's shooting in the 72nd percentile on these midrange attempts, but these looks would be more efficient if they were 3s. They'd also help the Heat's offense more.
Herro has averaged about eight 3-point attempts a game over the last two seasons; this year, he should average closer to 10 attempts a game. Playing off the ball more will make this goal feasible and establish the Heat hierarchy. It'll simplify the game for everyone.
Sometimes, Jimmy Butler played too passively while sharing the floor with Herro to let him get going in the past. More off-ball action for Herro would suggest that Butler has the ball in his hands more and can stay aggressive.
The Heat would always have a high-volume shooter on the floor if Herro bought into this off-ball role —teams would never get a chance to breathe if they had to chase Herro and Duncan Robinson all game.
Terry Rozier wouldn't have to play this should I score or get off the ball song-and-dance with Herro embracing playing off the ball. Many things that should help the Heat trend towards a positive offense occur if Herro, one of the best Heat shooters ever, leans into his calling card.