Heat's decision next season could come down to Jimmy Butler vs cap space

The Miami Heat mailbag is open! Here’s a question from X…

What do the Heat do if Jimmy leaves this offseason and get nothing in return? Do you think they pay Jimmy the max if he does produce a good regular season but not in the playoffs?

I’ll take these one at a time. First, if Jimmy Butler leaves for nothing – meaning he opts out of his $52.4 million salary for the 2025-26 season, leaves as an unrestricted free agent and the Heat don’t facilitate a move with a sign-and-trade deal – then that would mark a hard reset of the financial books.

Not only would the Heat dip nearly $50 million below the luxury tax limit, they would also create about $12 million in cap space. Operating as a cap space team, they’d also unlock the non-taxpayer mid-level exception valued at about $13 million.

The Heat could rather easily create another $10 million in space by waiving Duncan Robinson’s partially guaranteed contract, opening up about $20 million in cap space.

It’s not enough to sign a max player and Butler replacement, but that would provide the Heat with avenues to reshape the roster around Bam Adebayo.

It would be similar to where the Clippers and Warriors were this summer. When Paul George left LA, the Clippers had the space to sign Derrick Jones Jr., Nic Batum and Kris Dunn. Obviously none of them are of George's caliber, but they are helpful players who will fill out the roster. By getting off of Klay Thompson’s large salary figure, the Warriors created the flexibility to add De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson.

As for the second question, I don’t see the Heat offering Butler a maximum contract extension if it becomes clear that his playoff powers have diminished. As much as Pat Riley wants Butler to be more available and engaged in the regular season, Butler is still most important in the postseason, when he can go toe-to-toe with the best players in the game. 

If he can’t do that anymore at 35 years old, it doesn’t make sense to pay him like a star player. Remember, NBA contracts don’t pay players for what they have done, they pay them for what they will do. They are projections. 

Unless Butler proves that his game will evolve and age gracefully over the next two to three years, signing him to a maximum contract would be an irresponsible way to allocate limited funds.

The Heat don’t need one or the other – a strong regular season or postseason – from Butler. They need both.