The Miami Heat's projected closing lineup includes 1 big surprise

From Jack on X…

We can put the following players in pen: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.

Tyler Herro? You may be asking…

Yes, Tyler Herro. No one on the Miami Heat averaged more clutch-time minutes than Herro (3.9) did last season, including Butler (3.7) and Adebayo (3.5). He also led all Heat players in points in clutch games, which the NBA defines as games within five points within the final five minutes.

Erik Spoelstra has routinely went to Herro to close games because he appreciates his one-man shot-making ability, particularly from deep. Herro is a lot of things, including a source of debate among Heat fans, but he’s also been one of Miami’s best late-game shot-makers over his career (a fact that often gets forgotten).

Beyond those three, Spoelstra has some choices. The shortlist includes Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic. Perhaps others like Josh Richardson and Kel’el Ware can enter the chat, but they’ll have to prove that out first.

Spoelstra played a lot of different lineups last season but was most comfortable with Caleb Martin to close games. Martin is no longer on the team, opening up his spot for another wing to jump in.

My money in on Jaquez earning one of those spots. Spoelstra plays the guys he trusts, relying on that more than fit, defense, shooting, or anything else. He wants players he knows are going to be in the right positions and make good decisions. Time after time during his rookie season, Jaquez earned that trust.

Here’s what Spoelstra told me about Jaquez last season:

"“It seemed like every 10 days or two weeks that would be a natural progression to add more onto his plate,” Spoelstra said. “And then we had injuries so it made sense to give him more responsibilities and every time we did that he handled it very well—he earned it.”"

If Jaquez continues to develop at the same rate, he’ll be part of the closing group.

That leaves one spot. Robinson is too much of a defensive liability, particularly when paired with Herro, do be an automatic insert. Unless he has the hot hand, Spo should go in another direction.

Highsmith might be Miami’s best wing defender – a valuable thing at the end of games – but he’s too slow with the ball in his hands.

Unless Jovic makes a leap as a more consistent defender and versatile scorer, it’s difficult to imagine Spoelstra going with a 21-year-old. (Same can be said for trusting a rookie like Ware.)

Which brings us to Scary Terry. Rozier plays with the kind of confidence that Spoelstra appreciates. He provides ball-handling and spacing, and the Heat believe he can be a better point-of-attack defender than he showed in Charlotte. When he was with the Hornets, Rozier was their go-to option in crunch time, and he made some big shots after he was traded to the Heat, too.

Another way to put it is that the Heat’s projected closing lineup of Rozier, Herro, Jaquez, Butler and Adebayo also doubles as a list of their five best players.