Predicting when every member of the Heat’s starting 5 might leave

Since Jimmy Butler arrived in the summer of 2019, the Miami Heat have been operating with essentially the same core over the last five years.

Now that core is being threatened by a disappointing season, extension talks, player aging and a ballooning payroll. Teams rarely stay together as long as this one has, so it’s fair to wonder when the inevitable breakup will happen.

“Those things you’re doing to try to win, if they aren’t working, must change,” Pat Riley said at his end-of-season news conference. “So that doesn’t mean that change is a sinister word here. There’s a lot of elements that go into a culture, the erosion of a culture, being together for 30 years, generational change, problems in the NBA that are league-wide when it comes to health, when it comes to players missing games and availability. 

“That’s definitely a deep dive for us this summer into player availability. So we have to change some things. But we surely aren’t going to rip anything apart here.”

While nobody expects a full teardown after Miami made the playoffs for the fifth straight season, changes are needed after a second consecutive year in the play-in tournament.

Let’s take a look at how much longer this core can stay together by predicting when every member of the Heat’s starting five might leave.

Terry Rozier

Age: 30

Contract: Two years remaining at $24.9 million next season and $26.6 million in 2025-26.

Rozier joined the Heat before this year’s trade deadline and played 31 games for the Heat before a neck injury sidelined him for the end of the regular season and playoffs.

The Heat and medical professionals are confident that Rozier will make a full recovery, but rival teams will be cautious about trading for Rozier this summer before seeing him in action again. 

In his limited time, Rozier added much-needed ball-handling and shot-making to Miami’s offense, but the Heat can still use an upgrade in their backcourt. Even if the Heat manage to swing a deal for an All-Star guard, Rozier might still be part of the roster until he proves he’s healthy.

Maybe that only takes a few months. And if Rozier shows that he’s still a high-level scorer, there might be plenty of teams looking for his scoring help around next season’s trade deadline. Likewise, the Heat could benefit by redistributing his salary for depth at other positions.

Prediction for when Rozier leaves: 2024 trade deadline