Tyler Herro's surprising championship claim about the Heat is a stretch

From EJBrooksy on X…

Is Tyler Herro right? This team is a championship contender (when healthy)

For context, here’s what Tyler Herro told Forbes’ Mat Issa when asked if the Miami Heat should be considered a championship contender.

"“I don’t see why not. We have everything we need.”"

The Heat are 14 months removed from advancing to the 2023 NBA Finals, but the Eastern Conference has changed a lot since then. The Boston Celtics, fueled by the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, won the 2024 championship. The Milwaukee Bucks nabbed Damian Lillard from under Miami’s nose. The Philadelphia 76ers signed Paul George and saw Tyrese Maxey blossom into an All-Star caliber player. The New York Knicks have retooled around Jalen Brunson.

The Heat, meanwhile, remain relatively unchanged. Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin are out. Terry Rozier, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Josh Richardson and Kel’el Ware are in. The supporting cast has shuffled a bit, but improvement won’t come in the way of adding a premium outside talent.

“Obviously, there are a lot of teams in the East that think they have externally improved. But I think we’ve improved internally,” Herro told Forbes.

“It may look a little different, but we have young guys that we hope will continue to get better. Bam Adebayo and I are young guys who are starting to become full-fledged veterans in this league. Terry Rozier is healthy now and ready to compete. Then you have Jimmy Butler, who is extra motivated after not being able to play in the playoffs last season.”

There’s reason to believe the Heat will be better than last season’s first-round finish. Few teams suffered as many injuries as Miami, and even an injury-prone roster should get a little more injury luck. 

Butler, entering essentially a contract year, should be more motivated and engaged during the regular season. That, in turn, could help the Heat avoid participation in the treacherous play-in tournament for the third straight year. Herro and Adebayo continuing to make small leaps in their game can only help.

But a championship contender? That’s a stretch.

Miami’s net rating with Butler, Adebayo and Herro on the court over the last three seasons (minus the players who have left the team) is plus-2.0, per NBAWowy. That’s about where the Heat were at last season (plus-1.8).

Against teams with a top-10 point differential, the Heat went 5-20 last season, 14-15 in 2022-23 and 10-13 in 2021-22, according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s a combined 29-48 over the last three seasons. To get to the Finals, teams have to beat the good teams – something the Heat have not been good at over the last three seasons.

All of that said, there’s reason to believe. Butler, when engaged, is the rare advantage creator who can power the Heat to the greatest of heights. Even last season, the Heat were 8-1 when Butler posted a usage rating of at least 30% – a usage rate typically associated with a star player. That included wins over the Pacers, Pelicans and Cavaliers.

If Adebayo takes another leap, he could be in the mix for All-NBA next season. Herro, if he focuses more on his efficiency and playing off the ball, could finally carve out chemistry with his fellow team leaders.

The additions and growth from Jaquez, Nikola Jovic and Ware offset the losses of Vincent, Strus and Martin and provide the Heat with more versatility and higher upside. 

For all these reasons, the Heat could be setting up for their best regular season since earning the East's top seed in 2022. 

On paper, they don’t stack up to the Celtics, 76ers or Knicks. It will take some luck to get back to the Finals for the third time in six seasons. It always does. If Herro’s argument is that it’s possible, it’s hard to dispute. 

However, the reality is that this team has been middling in net rating and in the play-in tournament for two years in a row. Internal improvement can help, but generally, teams don’t dramatically change without an outside addition.