This season brings a lot of change for the Miami Heat. New star, new role players, and new candidates to lead the team in specific stats. The opportunities for change will certainly be there for the Heat as they embark on this new era.
Here’s who I have leading the Heat in each major category (and one special one) in Giannis Antetokounmpo's first season.
Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo
I feel like this is probably the easiest prediction of all time. He can average 26 in his sleep and will likely be upwards of 29 or even 30 points per game this season. No matter who’s on the court, he performs.
In fact, last season he averaged 27.6 points per game in only 29 minutes, nearly a point per minute. And that was with an awful Bucks team and a lost coach. Just imagine what he can do in Miami.
Assists: Davion Mitchell
This is an important year for Davion Mitchell, as for some reason a lot of people doubt that he can be a championship level point guard despite his strong assist-to-turnover ratio, improved three point shooting, and elite defense. He will once again lead the Heat in assists, granted some of the playmaking burden will fall onto Giannis this season.
Still, he is (barring free agency) the point guard of the future for the Heat, and for good reason. He fits what Coach Spo wants out of a guard.
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo
Giannis is usually the guy pulling down the most rebounds for his team, and for good reason: his starting centers have generally been guys who don’t really rebound, like Brook Lopez and Myles Turner. Bam Adebayo, on the other hand, actually pulls down boards.
Of course, Giannis has generally been a stronger rebounder than Bam, but I’d argue that’s mostly out of necessity. Even if he’s an incredibly elite rebounder.
Field Goal Percentage: Nick Richards
This, of course, is a wildcard since there’s a realistic chance he doesn’t make the Heat’s final roster. And Giannis has been incredibly efficient in his career, including a 62.4% field goal percentage last season.
Richards, however, could be a legit rim runner for a team that would benefit from having one off the bench. He would likely feature in two big lineups alongside Bobby Portis and would have the paint open to him with Portis’ threat of an outside shot.
Three-Point Percentage: Myron Gardner
Another wildcard, but Myron Gardner was incredibly efficient from 3 last season. He shot 40.6% from 3, granted, on fewer than two attempts per game.
But it’s enough to still qualify as a team leader, and I think he can replicate it again as he’ll be featured alongside multiple bench shooters such as Tim Hardaway Jr. and Simone Fontecchio.
Three-Point Makes: Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson is going to get the most freedom he’s ever had to shoot 3s. Yes, more than he had on Golden State, because, of course, Steph Curry still had to get his attempts off as well.
With a team starting Giannis and Bam, his shooting becomes essential to the offensive system of this roster. Coach Spo loves his shooters, and Klay is one of the greatest shooters of all time, even in his post-prime state.
Free-Throw Percentage: Ryan Conwell
This is a sneaky one, but Ryan Conwell will likely earn minutes this year. And he’s an absolutely lights-out shooter who also might not be shooting many free throws.
While his career high in college was only 85.5% from the charity stripe, elite 3-point shooters like him tend to use free-throw attempts as a way to get comfortable shooting in the NBA. I expect him to excel in that area.
Steals: Andrew Wiggins
Andrew Wiggins has become one of the best in the NBA at deflections, and now he’ll get even more opportunities out at the perimeter with the elite paint presence the Heat will have. Guys will have to take tougher shots and use creative ball-handling skills to get past the Heat’s perimeter defenders, giving guys like Wiggins ammo to rack up steals.
Honestly, it’ll likely be close between Wiggins and Mitchell, but I think Wiggins, as the more experienced defender, takes the cake. Even if Mitchell is a more opportunistic defender.
Blocks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The former Defensive Player of the Year is a legit rim protector, and while Bam is a great defender, one thing that hasn’t always racked up is blocks (less than 1 per game in his career. Giannis, on the other hand, averages 1.2 a game, and he’ll get more block opportunities since he won’t always have to get pulled out on switches with the defensive personnel around him.
He will be back to his blocking ways after only averaging .7 blocks a game last season. Championship expectations make you do things like that.
Charges Drawn: Davion Mitchell
I had to include one less-talked-about stat, but one that the Heat truly love: charges. Dru Smith and Pelle Larsson were actually the top players for the Heat in this stat last year, drawing 12 and 11 charges, respectively. Davion Mitchell only had 6.
However, after declaring his goal of winning Defensive Player of the Year, this seems like something he would love to lead the team in. And I think he’s fully capable of doing so.
Add us as a preferred source on Google