Ranking 7 Heat burning questions by how quickly we want them answered

The regular season is nearly here, and we still have some questions! The preseason was an unmitigated success. The Miami Heat are bonded after the Bahamas and Jimmy Butler played in more preseason games than he ever has in a Heat uniform – and he looked good! Bam Adebayo is shooting 3s, Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier are playing defense. Needless to say, the vibes are pretty great.

But that’s just the preseason, and the games won’t matter until the Heat open the regular season against the Orlando Magic on Oct. 23 at Kaseya Center. There are plenty of questions that still need answers, some sooner than later. Let’s explore those now.

1. Do the Heat need a backup point guard?

In the preseason, coach Erik Spoelstra handled his rotation with hockey-style line shifts, taking all five starters (Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic and Bam Adebayo) off the court at the same time as a second unit checked in. Spoelstra handed the keys to a few players to lead that unit – Dru Smith, Alec Burks, Jaime Jaquez Jr. – but it seems unlikely Spoelstra will take that substitution pattern into the regular season.

There’s a clear top nine in the rotation: The starting five, Jaquez, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith and Kevin Love. That leaves Burks, Smith or Thomas Bryant as the standard 10th man (at least until Josh Richardson returns from shoulder surgery). 

How Spoelstra handles his rotation could determine who ends up on the outside looking in. By staggering Rozier and Herro, Spoelstra could afford to leave both Burks and Smith out of the nightly rotation. Either can play alongside Robinson, who can do a fair bit of playmaking himself. But that would also limit the time Rozier and Herro play together, which might be something Spoelstra wants to lean into. In that case, one of Smith or Burks could find himself getting some playing time.

The bet here is that one of them enters the nightly rotation, even if only for a few minutes. If Herro is to truly embrace an off-ball role, then having him lead the second unit feels like mixed messages. The backup point guard shouldn’t need to do much, especially with Jaquez there to create advantages. Having someone like Smith, even to just bring the ball up when Rozier is out, could be a smart bit of organization. 

2. Can the Heat make enough 3s?

Yes, the Heat got up a bunch of 3s in the preseason. No, they didn’t make a ton of them. Before Friday night’s formality of a finale, the Heat averaged 42.3 3-point attempts in their first four preseason games, but converted on an ice-cold 30.2%. Yikes!

So despite getting up nearly seven more attempts than they did last regular season, the Heat still made about the amount of 3s per game (12.8 in the preseason, 12.5 last regular season).

It’s fair to wonder if the Heat have the shooters to warrant the volume.

As Owen Phillips diagramed, there isn’t a strong correlation between 3-point shooting in the preseason and regular season. Basically, the sample size of a handful of preseason games isn’t big enough to warrant any conclusions. 

Taking Miami’s 3-point shooting percentage from last season – 37% – paints a rosier picture. If the Heat shoot that percentage on their preseason volume, they will make 15.6 3s per game. That would have ranked second in the league last season behind only the Boston Celtics. 

The Heat have good shooters who struggled in limited preseason minutes. Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier will all shoot better in the regular season.

3. When will Kel’el Ware and Bam Adebayo play together?

Prior to Friday night’s meaningless finale, Kel’el Ware’s did not log a single first-half minute, nor did we see a lineup with Ware alongside Bam Adebayo in the Heat’s frontcourt. 

Ware’s minutes were mostly limited to playing with his fellow summer league champions in the fourth quarter. It was clear that Ware is fourth on the center depth chart, behind Adebayo, Kevin Love and Thomas Bryant.

That shouldn’t be a surprise. Ware is a rookie, and center is a position with a steep learning curve. The scouting report on Ware is that he’s raw and, boy, is he. The 7-footer has NBA size and skill, but he’s jumpy as a cat on defense and is still developing the strength needed to score in the paint and beat grown men for rebounds. Again, this is fine.

With Spoelstra prioritizing building chemistry with his starters in the preseason, experimenting with a double-big lineup would have thrown off the offensive rhythm and been a waste of minutes.

But I do think we’ll see Ware and Adebayo play together at some point. It’s too intriguing of a lineup not to at least take for a test drive. Will Spo give it a shot on Nov. 8, when the Heat travel to the Denver Nuggets? The Timberwolves beat the Nuggets in the playoffs last season in large part because they were able to defend Nikola Jokic with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. Ware isn’t as capable a defender as either Gobert or KAT just yet, but perhaps he can play a helping role while Adebayo bodies the Joker.

Spoelstra will want to know if Ware-Bam lineups are viable before the playoffs begin. If we don’t see it then, it’s just a matter of time. Even if only for limited minutes.

4. Can the Heat crack the top tier in the East?

It might seem strange to consider that this could be answered relatively early in the regular season, but I think we’ll know how good this Heat team is by Thanksgiving.

The Heat have the league’s sixth-hardest schedule between opening night and turkey day, according to Positive Residual’s database. They’ll play 11 of their first 16 games against playoff teams, including contenders in the Knicks, Nuggets, Timberwolves, 76ers, Mavericks and Bucks.

How the Heat perform in these games will tell us whether they are capable of making a deep playoff run. 

The Heat were 5-20 against opponents with a top-10 point differential last season. They padded their record by beating bad teams, but were clearly not in the same class as the top outfits in the league. 

If Butler is engaged and the changes to the offense take hold, they should be better. We’ll know how good the Heat are relatively soon.

5. Is Nikola Jovic the long-term answer at power forward?

When asked about his decision to go with Nikola Jovic as his fifth starter, Erik Spoelstra didn’t exactly give the third-year forward a ringing endorsement.

"He didn’t do anything to not at least have us look at that,” Spoelstra said.

In other words, it’s Jovic’s job to lose and, so far, he hasn’t done anything to lose it, nor has anyone else done enough to take it from him.

Besides a few preseason minutes with Haywood Highsmith at the 4 alongside Rozier, Herro, Butler and Adebayo, Spoelstra didn’t experiment with his starting lineup. Spo seems comfortable with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Highsmith coming off the bench. For now, this is Jovic’s job. 

But, as Jovic said, his primary job (other than being tall) is making the open 3s his teammates create for him. After making 40% last season, he shot 29.4% from deep in the preseason. He should bounce back but, if he doesn’t, Spoelstra will be forced to try someone else.

6. Who will be the Heat’s leading scorer?

And who will take the most shots? The Heat’s five-out offense also seems to be an equal-opportunity offense, with Bam Adebayo and Terry Rozier acting as the central playmaking hubs. The ball will be in their hands a lot, but they also are responsible for getting others shots.

Herro is playing more of an off-ball role, which empowers him to shoot it when he gets the ball (and do so quickly). Jimmy Butler can walk into 20 points with timely cuts and free throws, but Miami’s new offense is built in part to protect the team on nights when Butler is either unavailable or disinterested in scoring.

If we go by the preseason numbers, Herro led the starters in points and attempts per 36 minutes. Butler was second in points per 36, followed by Adebayo, Nikola Jovic, then Rozier.

Chances are that Spoelstra will have at least one of his starters play with the second unit, boosting potential scoring opportunities. That will impact this stat. Who finishes the season as the Heat’s leading scorer? I think it comes down to Butler (consistency) and Herro (chances), but your guess is as good as mine.

7. Will this be a bounce-back year for Jimmy Butler?

Butler played in more preseason games than he ever has in a Heat uniform, setting the tone for what should be a bounce-back season after last year’s disappointing finish.

But that doesn’t mean it will be.

Butler is 35. He hasn’t played in 65 games in a regular season since 2018-19. Not only were his counting stats down last season, but so were key athletic indicators like dunks, shots at the rim and steals and blocks. Players don’t tend to get better and healthier at this stage of their careers.

The changes the Heat have made on both ends of the court appear to be partially aimed at protecting Butler – and the Heat from Butler’s off nights. 

Last year, the Heat were overly reliant on Butler and Adebayo making things happen out of the post. This perimeter-oriented offense is built on sharing the ball, allowing everyone to play in space and force the defense to rotate. 

But it should also make things easier for Butler. He won’t have to create as much, meaning he can play off his teammates more. More backdoor cuts and corner 3s and fewer post-ups are a good way to help a player age with grace.

Of course, the Heat will need some classic Playoff Jimmy moments if they are going to make a deep playoff run. We won’t know if Playoff Jimmy still exists until we get there.