Secret to Heat's surprising offense starts, but doesn't end, with Jimmy Butler

The Miami Heat are still a mystery. They're an up-and-down team that has found itself among the NBA's elite offenses. Jimmy Butler isn't always the one scoring, but his fingerprints have been everywhere. The sustainability of the Heat's offense remains to be seen, but there are question marks on the roster. Players are improving. Some are regressing, but who will the Heat keep around for the long run?

1. Jaime Jaquez has to get his elite traits back in motion
2. Midrange is less frequent, but Herro will still get there when mandatory
3. Erik Spoelstra has found new closers
4. While a Jimmy Butler isolation guarantees success, running it repeatedly is challenging.
5. Pressure bursts shoes

Jaime Jaquez has to get his elite traits back in motion

Jaime Jaquez Jr. was considered the steal of the draft in 2023. The four-year man from UCLA had a lengthy college career that prepped him for the NBA stage.

Draft experts hit the nail on the head, declaring him one of the most NBA-ready prospects. Jaquez came out blazing, displaying a versatile game that led him to an All-Rookie 1st-team selection. Jaquez was a paint-finishing beast that decimated defenses with crafty spin moves and veteran-like postups. His shot was streaky, but he had a 22-game stretch that saw him shoot 43% on 3.0 3PA. He hasn't reached that baseline this year.

In Jaquez's defense, he suffered a groin strain last season that halted his brilliance and another groin injury right before the 2024-25 season. He's looked limited, which could explain his lack of burst. Jaquez was never a killer athlete, so anything anchoring him down will have a massive impact.

Jaquez was 5/12 from the field in the Heats overtime loss to the Pistons. This was his best outing of the month since the Boston game in the first week of December. Jaquez had some nice moments, but teams have caught on to him.

Pistons rookie Ron Holland stays solid and doesn't fall for one of Jaquez's pattened fakes. Jaquez couldn't get Holland in the air to glide by him for an easy lefty lay. Instead, he forced a shot he got off with ease last year.

Jaquez didn't use a lefty finish vs. the Bucks here, but watch how he gets defenders jumping like they just stepped on a Lego. Bennedict Mathurin and TJ McConnell couldn't believe it-- they just knew it was a travel. But nope refs didn't call it, that was Jaquez cooking.

He got Killian Hayes up the same way. These are crisp movements.

He was quicker and more persuasive with his fakes last year. With limited burst and the scouting report out on him, getting to his bread and butter is tougher. His finishing is worse overall. He was 64% at the rim compared to 52% this year. With his jumper not falling and his on-ball defense being shaky, Jaquez has to get back to being above average at something.

Midrange is less frequent, but Herro will still get there when mandatory

Before drilling this silky midrange with Tim Hardaway Jr. on his bumper, Herro was 4/13 against a middle-of-the-pack Pistons defense. Herro made four of his next six shots after finding a little rhythm in the forbidden midrange.

Jokes aside, Herro has embraced the numbers and leaned into taking more efficient shots (3s over long 2s), but when nothing is falling, sometimes a player just needs to see the ball go through the hoop. Herro buried an and-1 middy a few possessions before setting up his uptick in 24-foot jumpers.

It just wasn't Herro's night overall. He was 4/17 from deep. He's an S-tier shooter, but he tried to get his shot going in different ways. Are the midranges the best shot for a lethal sniper like Herro? Not at all. But he's this team's go-to scorer/sharpshooter--he needed to pick up his play, and seeing the ball go through the net by any means was necessary for his mental.

Heat legend (or meme) Dion Waiters famously said, "I'd rather go 0 for 30 than 0 for nine because if you go 0 for nine, that means you stopped shooting." Herro embodied that quote against the Pistons and drilled a triple in Broadway fashion that sent this game into overtime.

He fired a middy to gain some comfort and continued to let it fly from deep. Shooters shoot.

Erik Spoelstra has found new closers

Over the last four outings, Terry Rozier has played in 43 of the possible 48 4th quarter minutes, and Dru Smith has only sat for 10 seconds. These pesting guards are turning up the intensity late in games and forcing timely turnovers.

While Rozier hasn't been the solid-scoring-punch we expected, his intensity on the glass and willingness to guard in the backcourt has earned Spo's trust in crunch time.

Dru Smith was a game wrecker vs Detroit. He consistently got his hands in the cookie jar, turning over one of the most turnover-prone teams in the league. Smith had four steals alone in the fourth quarter, igniting quick Heat offense.

Smith and Rozier function as one in this clip. Rozier closed out on the shooter with discipline and got a smidge of his left hand on the ball, throwing off the timing of Jalen Duren's catch. Smith only needed a fingertip on the ball, and it went the other way. As he hits it ahead to Jaquez, we see Rozier zoom out to the corner. Rozier has his mind made up to play good team basketball and cuts to the rack for a momentum-shifting sequence.

Starter Rozier might've hung out in the corner waiting to fire a 3, but Rozier has the wherewithal to realize his shot has been broken, so he got to the lane for an easy basket (he should've gotten the whistle here).

Rozier hounded backup point guard Marcus Sasser for all four of Sasser's 4th quarter minutes. He's fighting through screens, staying attached, and forcing Sasser to pick the ball up. Rozier should plan on making backups' lives as uncomfortable as possible.

Rozier has been far from a perfect defender. His off-ball lapses are glaring, but he's fighting on the ball and applying needed pressure. Rozier is fighting overall-- he's soaring up to the rafters and averaging an impactful seven boards a game over the last three games. He's finding ways to contribute in his limited role.

While a Jimmy Butler isolation guarantees success, running it repeatedly is challenging.

The Heat have a top-10 offense, but it's uglier once you squint your eyes. The Heat are 25th in rim accuracy and 22nd from the midrange. This offense is built off the sheer will of Jimmy Butler and volume-hot shooting.

The team is taking more 3s than last year—that's needed with the talent discrepancy they face around the league. ~41% of their shots come from 3 compared to 36% last year.

Herro and Duncan Robinson carry the Heat's 3-point volume. Haywood Highsmith, Dru Smith, Alec Burks, and Pelle Larsson shoot worthy percentages on low volume.

One of the best ways to generate solid looks from three is with dribble penetration, which collapses the defense and leaves shooters with space to fire.

The problem with the Heat offense is that Jimmy Butler is the only player who can create and consistently collapse the defense. He does plenty of damage, collapsing defenses in isolation. Butler, being the lonesome Heat creator, shows its head when they run into elite defenses that switch frequently, mucking it up for shooters. That volume-hot shooting sees more variance when the looks aren't clean.

Heat points per 100 possessions overall: 115.6

Heat points per100 vs top 10 defenses: 105.8

Butler didn't play in every game vs the elite defenses, but his absence only exemplifies the point that he's the engine that makes this thing go. A Jimmy iso creates something positive more times than not. The worriesome part about that bit is that the Heat aren't going to that playtype as often as possible.

Butler's 14% isolation rate is on par with the likes of Brandon Ingram, Franz Wagner, Alperen Segun, Damian Lillard, and Luka Doncic. None of these players sniff Butler's 1.02 iso points per possession except Doncic, a top 3 player on the planet.

Butlers' lower frequency could be due to age. It's not easy getting your rocks off alone consistently 14 years into your career. Isolation in a vacuum can negatively affect the team when said player is in isolation strictly to shoot. Many of those dribble-dribble-dribble shoot-over-two defenders in isolation possessions are outdated and died in the 2000s.

Butler's iso game doesn't cause the ball to stick because he's looking to score first to set up his teammates as the game progresses. Butler in iso is a Heat cheat code that opens up the game for all, but it's understandable why he doesn't have a 23.8 isolation frequency like Kyrie Irving. Butler might not be able to iso as often as Irving, but you won't find a clip of Kyrie scoring with one shoe.

Pressure bursts shoes

Jimmy Butler's monster stat line against the Pistons had only been duplicated by Demarcus Cousins and George McGinnis. 19 boards for a wing is unfathomable, especially considering he had four rebounds at halftime.

Butler's stat line wasn't the only memorable thing about this performance. Late in the 4th quarter, Butler played a whole possession, rocking only one of his yellow LINING signature shoes. It was fitting Butler snagged a board over Hardaway Jr. to complete this gutsy play.

This isn't the first time a Heat player has made his mark in his socks. Mike Miller was a walking match in the 2013 Finals-- he shot 61% from 3.

No shot was bigger than that one-shoe three in the 4th quarter in a win-or-go-home game 6. Miller's one-shoe incident ended on the positive side as the Heat went on to win that series, capturing their third championship.

The Heat have even more history with shoes. Dwyane Wade threw Mike Bibby's shoe into the Heats bench direction in the middle of a playoff game! Talk about sticking it to your former teammate. Wade and Bibby shared a playful shoe incident, but Butlers didn't turn out that way.

Butler, like Bibby, retrieved his lost shoe while the play was in motion. Cade Cunningham took advantage of the 4-on-5 scenario and converted on the game-winning paint shot. Bam Adebayo didn't affect this shot at all as he attempted to make up for Rozier getting blown by.

Maybe Jimmy should have gotten back on defense with one shoe, but he didn't. I can't say that decision lost the game for Miami-- the Pistons were begging for Miami to snatch this game with repeated careless turnovers.

Butler was open to taking heat after the game. He's built for the pressure moments and has stepped up lately. He's continuing to raise his value whether the Heat trade him or choose to extend him this summer. Butler is showing the world he still has it in spurts.