Start or bench? The truth behind Nikola Jovic's up-and-down start to the season

After a promising end last season where we saw Nikola Jovic insert himself into the starting lineup, it hasn’t exactly been ideal for him to start his third year. He came into the season as a starter and since the last five games, he has been coming off the bench. Although I’d argue that has to do more with needing Haywood Highsmith.

But how has he looked on the court, particularly on the offensive end? Because there have been takes that I’ve been seeing that he’s being misused, he doesn’t fit with certain players, or that his strengths are being wasted being a spot up shooter in the corner.

So, I went through a lot of his stats and possessions in the recent stretch (mainly looking at his stretch off the bench)to see what stands out.

Firstly, his stats remain almost identical to last year. Here are some of his stats per 100 possessions last year compared to this year:

• Points: 19.3 -> 20.8

• Usage: 17.1% -> 17.3%

• Assist percentage: 14.0% -> 10.8%

• Effective field goal: 56.8% -> 54.1%

• True shooting: 58.3% -> 57.5%

• 2pt percentage: 52.5% -> 59.5%

• 3pt percentage: 39.9% -> 32.6%

• 3pt rate: 58.0% -> 50.6%

Three things stand out. He’s improved a lot as a finisher inside. He forgot how to shoot so far in these 13 games. He’s also taking fewer 3s relative to his shots.

I also wanted to check how he looked in these last five games off the bench to see if he has been playing better or differently.

There is some increase in shooting and efficiency and that comes from being able to finish inside better.

The one thing that obviously stood out was who he played with more. Being a starter, he was essentially locked in playing around 12-15 minutes with any of the four starters. His most 2-man and 3-man lineups all included Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler, which makes sense. Now, his most used combinations are Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and Josh Richardson. That’s his group now. Before his most used 2-man was with Rozier and Herro at 15.6 minutes — it’s Robinson now at 16.0.

But oddly enough, a lot of the ways he’s used hasn’t changed regardless of who he’s with. After rewatching all of his possessions off the bench, they are essentially the same. It didn’t matter who the ball handler is, if there is more talent or how different the talent is.

How he spends most of his time still comes off-ball. Here are his tracking stats as a starter vs off the bench:

Touches per 36 minutes: 58 -> 57

Time of possession: 1.0 -> 1.2

Average second per touch: 2:02 -> 2.38

Average dribble per touch: 1.08 -> 1.38

Passes per 36: 42 -> 42

Potential assists per 36: 6.5 -> 4.7

There are some marginal differences, but it hasn’t shown up on film in a significant way. His primary role has still been to be the spacer. A lot of his 3s have come through this way:

This is where it’s on him to better. He is shooting 32.6% on 8.5 3s per 100 possessions. What makes this worse is 37 of his 43 triples are considered wide open. However you feel about Jovic being misused or pigeonholed into being solely a spot up shooter, a player has to be better in this department.

No role player will be on the ball for most of his time on the court and if a player can only be maximised, impactful, or his strengths can only be shown if the action involves him directly, that’s an issue. This is where I’d disagree that he’s being misused.

There is an argument that he does warrant some more on-ball reps. There is an argument that the ratio of how he spends his time on or off the ball is a bit too much. Neither of the arguments counters that he also needs to do a better job in that role without needing to change the role completely.

There’s a lot of possessions like this with him being the spacer, where he is standing still for most of the possession. This is also not entirely his fault a lot of the time. He needs other players to make the pass to him in the first place. Role players do depend a lot on the “stars” to do something that they can capitalize on. At the same time, players that standstill for a lot of their possessions don’t help themselves.

If that’s the case, then you don’t really feel the player on the court. That’s how I felt about Jovic on the court. He doesn’t actively make mistakes that cost them anything, but he hasn’t been actively doing anything that adds to them anything either. That’s made worse by the poor shooting on the times that he does get the ball and ends the possession with a shot

Now, there have also been plenty of instances where he is looking to set a pin-in screen and look to do something off-ball:

He is doing his job by looking to set a screen to free up someone else. A lot of the time, though, it won’t show up because the pass to the shooter isn’t made or the player doesn’t move with intent, but that’s not on Jovic.

There are also great plays off-ball like this where he makes a timely cut, lifts, exchanges, relocates for a good look, and beats closeouts.

But it’s minimal relative to how many possessions he stands in one spot. This has been my main issue with Jovic with his off-ball. It’s not the fact that he is off-ball where it doesn’t use his strengths well, but him not actively looking to make himself more effective off-ball. The fix isn’t one or the other. The potential fix shouldn’t be simply that he needs to be used differently, but also how can he be more effective in a role that he’s in.

On the other hand, the way he’s been used on-ball or involved in the actions has been a sign of encouragement, even in limited usage. This is also where I can see the case that he should be used differently to have his impact shown differently.

The first way that they have looked to get him involved more is through the post against a mismatch:

I don’t know where I’m at with this yet, though. This is still a very much work in progress. He hasn’t been able to exploit the mismatches well whether it’s backing them down for a clean look or making the right read out of it. Some of the shots and how he approaches to back the defender feel too fast and out of control.

Side note, the team also has to do a better job in actually getting him the ball in the post when he does have a mismatch. On a couple of those plays in the video, he has a defender with almost whole foot advantage and they don’t go to him.

My favorite way of using him, which has also been used more in this way, is as a screener. He has played a handful of minutes without Adebayo recently and that meant he was the screener.

This is another instance of a work in progress but this has a lot of potential in various ways. Jovic ticks off so many boxes for why he should be used a lot more as the screener. He is 6 foot 10. He can shoot. He can roll or pop. He has a high IQ and fast processing speed on the go.

A lot of the possessions of him as the screener still feels like he’s working out how and what he should do, which makes sense as he wasn’t growing up to a big. That’s where the effectiveness hasn’t been there, but you can see the vision.

He has had a few ghost screens into a pop, where he lets it fly. When a team switched, he was able to get into the post and attempt to exploit it. In a different case where the team switched, he was able to slip the screen instead and get to the rim or make a decision on the short roll. This is where I want to see him develop more.

Finally, we have some of his self creation off the dribble:

I like these possessions in bursts, depending on how it’s used and in certain situations against certain mismatches. But I’m not there when it comes to giving him more responsibilities as a ball handler in PNRs regularly. I don’t believe that to be either his strength or something that would lead to great things offensively. There are possessions where he is tasked with the ball and has to make a decision as the hub. That’s where I like to see more on-ball reps for him.

So, after rewatching all of the possessions, it’s clear that there are various ways to use him and it shouldn’t matter who he’s with. I haven’t seen a drastic change whether he was starting or off the bench in either on-ball usage volume or effectiveness elsewhere.

Whoever he’s with, the areas to improve and the solutions to it isn’t necessarily a change in role, but learning to be effective in that role better. This is where I don’t see his impact be an issue where he’s misused.

The shooting has to bounce back. If he’s going to be an inconsistent, poor shooter, there’s little a player can do to counter in other ways without limiting what you can do. That alone fixes a lot. He’s already taking over 8 3s per 100 possessions and ending a possession shooting 32% is not good enough.

Related to that, his effectiveness off-ball as a spacer has to improve. He 100% has the IQ and the feel. He has flashed and shown that. It now needs refining and being more consistent. It’s more of those off-ball screens. It’s less standing still in the for the entire possession. A coach doesn’t have to be the one to tell a player to cut to exploit ball-watching defenses.

Now, there is a question on the ratio of him being used in that way versus being involved in some other ways. That’s a fair argument because he does have plenty of other skills and strengths that can be maximized in a different way. One way we saw is being a screener, but that again needs a lot of work and refining to make it a viable option to go to at a higher volume.

But right now, he’s still only 21 years old has improved his finishing, has been more aggressive in attacking mismatches, has looked to diversify his offense, and has even been directing others on offense.