Surprising Jimmy Butler stat is best predictor of Heat's success (and failure)

Over Butler’s first five seasons in Miami, the Heat are 155-84 when Jimmy Butler has a usage rating of 20% or more. They are 22-29 when Butler has a usage rating lower than 20%.

That’s the difference between a team playing at a 65-win pace versus a 43-win pace. In other words, a contender versus a play-in team.

That trend has continued this season, when the Heat are 5-2 when Butler posts a 20% usage rating versus 0-3 when he doesn’t. 

When Jimmy Butler is an active part of the Heat's offense, success follows.

What exactly is a 20% usage rating? Usage rating is the percentage of a player’s team's possessions that he uses (via field goal attempts, turnovers and trips to the line) while he's on the floor.

Using 20% of a team’s possessions is hardly the marker of a high-usage player. Stars like Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander regularly eclipse 30%. 

Asking Butler to use 20% of Miami’s possessions is not asking him to play like an MVP candidate. Rather, it’s closer to what a high-level role player like Cam Johnson averages for a season. When Butler is merely an active part of the offense, the Heat win a lot of games.

But what about when Butler does play like a star?

Drawing the line at a 26% usage rating (typically associated with a star-level player), when Butler posts a usage rating of 26% or higher, the Heat are 94-45. That’s a 68-win pace. 

Why are these numbers so extreme?

Because when Butler plays like a star, everything else for the Heat falls into place. He is Miami’s best advantage creator on offense. When he drives into the paint, the defense is forced to collapse, which opens the floor for his teammates.

When Butler is merely a passenger on offense, that thrusts more on the shoulders of Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and others. As capable as Adebayo and Herro are, they don’t present the same mismatch issues as Butler. They either don’t have the physicality that demands extra defenders (in Herro’s case) or the off-the-dribble skills and touch (in Adebayo’s case).  But when Butler is attacking, Adebayo has more room as a roller to the rim and Herro’s outside shots are more open. 

This is what Heat fans have seen from Butler in the postseason. Simply put, “Playoff Jimmy” is Butler playing like a max-level, star player. It shouldn’t be a surprise when the offense flows better when he’s playing at that level.

But again, the minimum requirements aren’t that high. Butler should be aiming, at the very least, to be as much a part of the offense as Herro and Adebayo in the regular season. It’s when he uses fewer possessions than his peers that the Heat get into trouble.