Surprising lineup combination could turn the Miami Heat's season around

As Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra experiments with different lineups, he’s usually searching for player combinations that can anchor specific units. 

For example, last season, the two-man combination of Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love became the foundation of Miami’s second unit. Love’s spacing helped propel Butler to the rim, and his outlet passing turned Butler into one of the league’s most dangerous downfield threats.

Well, Spo may have stumbled into his latest magic two-man combination. 

With Butler sidelined for four games with an ankle sprain earlier this month, Spoelstra elevated Haywood Highsmith into the starting lineup. Highsmith’s defense and efficient shooting are a seamless fit beside Miami’s higher-wattage stars and paired as the perfect complement to Tyler Herro.

So much so that when Butler returned, Highsmith remained in a revamped starting lineup. With Terry Rozier sidelined with a bothersome foot on Monday, the Heat blew out the Philadelphia 76ers (and even triggered a team meeting) as the opening group of Herro, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Highsmith and Bam Adebayo won their minutes by 12 points.

And that’s the basis of our new favorite lineup combination. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat are out-scoring opponents by 7.8 points per 100 possessions when Herro and Highsmith share the court without Rozier. 

The Heat should continue to start Herro and Highsmith and bring Rozier off the bench.

Why without Rozier? Because when the Heat also have Rozier on the court with Herro and Highsmith, they are losing those minutes by 1.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s a dramatic swing, but it makes sense when considering Rozier’s shooting struggles and defensive limitations.

Meanwhile, Herro has been nothing short of Miami’s MVP through the opening month of the season. He’s averaging career highs in points (24.2), assists (5.2), field goal percentage (48.6%) and 3-point shooting percentage (45.2%) and makes (4.4). 

Highsmith makes up for Herro’s natural defensive limitations. Bball Index’s database gives Highsmith a B+ grade for overall defensive impact. 

It’s not rocket science to figure out why this tandem works. By pairing Herro and Highsmith, the Heat are putting their best offensive player and best perimeter defender on the court together.

That offense-defense balance shows up in the numbers. In these minutes, the Heat are scoring 121.4 points per 100 possessions and allowing 113.6. That’s the equivalent of the fourth-ranked offense and 19th-ranked defense for the season.

Part of the defensive slippage has to do with Butler’s availability. The Herro-Highsmith lineups without Butler are giving up 116 points per 100 possessions but only 110 points with him. A defensive rating of 110 would climb into the top 10 – much more acceptable for this Heat team. 

(Lineups with Herro, Butler, Highsmith and Adebayo and without Rozier are out-scoring their opponents at a rate of 13.6 points per 100 possessions. It’s a smaller sample, but worth exploring. Spoelstra is using Duncan Robinson as the fifth starter for now, and the early returns have been promising.)

Highsmith isn’t the Heat’s best player, but he is the skeleton key that unlocks their best lineups. He’s a true 3-and-D player who doesn’t need the ball to make an impact and makes life easier for the team’s stars.

Not only has Highsmith earned a spot in the starting lineup, but he should be playing with Herro as much as possible throughout the game. Herro and Highsmith should be stapled together. The numbers don’t lie.