The Miami Heat being overlooked and underestimated? At this point, it is a tradition.
Once again, the NBA GM survey shows executives skeptical of Miami's ability to make noise this season.
But considering the Heat's track record of proving doubters wrong, should we be surprised? The survey, which offers a glimpse into how league insiders predict the upcoming season, has little love for a team that has repeatedly defied expectations. But isn't that when Miami is at its most dangerous? Let's break down what this year's survey says and doesn't say about Miami's potential this season.
New year, same result
Right off the jump, it is evident that yet another lackluster season is projected for the Miami Heat. Even though they have had impressive postseason success over the last couple of years, it wasn’t enough. By finishing as the eighth seed in back-to-back seasons, GMs seem convinced the Heat won't break that pattern.
In the predicted Eastern Conference standings, Miami is projected behind Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orlando and Indiana. That's a poor prognosis for a team that has perennially exceeded regular-season expectations by overachieving in the playoffs.
Overlooked development
More astonishingly, no Heat player could be found in the "most likely to have a breakout season" category. Miami is synonymous with player development, turning many undrafted or unknown players into great contributors. "Heat Culture" develops the most overlooked talents into breakout stars. And it's for that reason that player inclusions like Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic are a little puzzling.
For example, Jaquez had a solid rookie campaign, with an average of 11.9 PPG and making the All-Rookie First Team. A player with that strong of a start would usually at least be given some votes in this category, considering what role he is set to assume in Miami's system.
Also, Nikola Jovic is entering his third year and is likely now about to become a full-time starter, making him a great candidate for a breakout year, but he was utterly disregarded.
Summer League meant nothing
Another shocker was that Heat rookie Kel’el Ware received no votes in any of the three rookie categories despite averaging 17.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 2.3 BPG in the summer league and helped lead the Heat to their first-ever Summer League championship.
Those categories included: Who will win the 24/25 rookie of the year, who will be the best rookie in five years, and which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the draft?
I thought Ware would at least get some votes for the value category after not being drafted in the lottery (15) and still putting up the numbers he did over the summer.
Bam is starting to get some defensive recognition, but not enough
Bam Adebayo has been one of the most consistent defensive players. It's surprising enough that he has yet to win Defensive Player of the Year, but how he never got on a defensive first team until last season still perplexes me. Some GMs are starting to see his ability defensively, as he was tied for second, receiving 10% of the votes behind only Victor Wembanayama (40%) for the best defensive player in the NBA after receiving no votes last year.
Bam also received votes for the best interior defender in the NBA, unlike last year, getting 7% of the votes and fourth place behind Wembanayama (40%), Rudy Gobert (37%), and Anthony Davis (10%). It is clear that his amazing play last year, along with his defense being showcased this summer at the Paris Olympics, most certainly gave Bam more recognition defensively.
The disappointment came when I saw the most versatile defender category. I thought for sure Bam would have been number one, improving from his third-place slot in last year's poll, but not only did he not get first, he dropped to fourth behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (17%), OG Anunoby (13%), and Wembanayama (13%).
Bam is the most versatile defender in the league, capable of guarding players across all positions, which was surprising considering his ranking among other players.
Spo remains the best in the business
One thing that’s undisputed is that Erik Spoelstra is the best head coach in the NBA. The GMs agreed as they voted Spoestrla for the fifth consecutive year as the best coach in the league, receiving 67% of the votes.
He was again voted as the best manager/motivator of the people, receiving 37% of the votes, and remained the coach with the best defensive schemes, even though it was a smaller margin this season. He did drop one spot behind Tyronn Lue as the head coach who makes the best in-game adjustments, but at the end of the day, it is pretty obvious who these executives think is the best coach in the business.
Other takeaways
- Jimmy Butler did not receive any votes as the best player in any position. This seems understandable, considering that the six-time all-star played in only 60 games last season and did not touch the floor during the postseason.
- Former Heat forward Caleb Martin received votes as one of the most surprising moves of the offseason and for one of the most underrated player acquisitions after the 76ers signed Martin to a four-year $32 million contract.
- Heat assistant coach Chris Quinn was tied for fourth place with Jeff Van Gundy as the best assistant coach in the NBA, only behind Sam Cassell of the Celtics, Micah Nori of the Timberwolves, and Sean Sweeny of the Mavericks.