The Miami Heat are trending toward very familiar territory 

A picture of the Miami Heat should be adjacent to the word unpredictable in Webster's. The 2025 Heat can have their worst offensive game of the season, followed by one of their best—against the same opponent! The Heat went 2-2 since last Friday. While that's average, the year overall remains gloomy. Could that 131-point game spark a playoff push? That's Improbable but not impossible. A 7-10 seed is more likely.

The new additions have been better than expected in some capacity, but our new wing still needs to deliver in specific situations. It's unfortunate what happened to the young point forward, who still needs as many game reps as possible to reach his ceiling. Heat fans got what they've been clamoring for, and the results are mixed. Let's dive into Tyler Herro to begin this week's 5 Things U Can Heat because I'm fascinated by his touch. 

1. Tyler Herro's stops and starts like a ruined engine
2. The Heat needs a bailout option, and the new 22 should provide that on paper
3. Have you ever seen a dog Chihuahua sized but strong as a Mastiff? 
4. The Heat are without 2 1,100 minute+ players
5. The Miami Heat are trending toward very familiar territory 

Tyler Herro's stops and starts like a ruined engine

Every NBA season, a trend spreads like gossip at the workplace. The James Harden stepback was implemented in on-ball players' games years ago, and that's spread to the youth level.

The decel dribble may have been a thing in the past, but it's become a staple today. Rookies like San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle spam this stop-and-start move in transition, and defenders consistently jump too early, leaving them out of the play. It's key to watch what specific moves young players have in the bag because that can be a tell-tale sign of where the game is trending.

Herro's finishing has been a bright spot. Considering he's a sniper and shouldn't be tasked with being the primary ball handler, his finishing improvements will be well-suited for when the Heat iron out this roster, placing him where he needs to be.

Herro is shooting 64% at the cup per Cleaning the Glass. His decel finishes are further out than others, but his light touch comes through.

To hit the breaks going game speed and get better-angled shots adds to the argument that players are more skilled than ever. The NBA is one of the few sports where some fans don't accept that evolution is inevitable. Of course, players in 2025 will have more in their arsenal than in 2005. Though that's a given, Andrew Wiggins needs to excel more at this 2005 play type. 

The Heat needs a bailout option, and the new 22 should provide that on paper

From a production standpoint, there aren't many holes to poke at Wiggins' just-began Heat tenure. The numbers are there— the efficiency is lower than you'd want from a third option, but he's producing. During the first Atlanta Hawks game this week, he was the only Heat player to hit a 3 for what seemed like forever.

The on-ball defense is still reminiscent of his Warriors days, but I thought he'd do more in dire situations so far. With Herro leading the show, he's taking the toughest matchups nightly. Wiggins has constant mismatches he's never taken advantage of yet.

Isolations aren't as crucial today as they were in 2005. But when a play breaks down, someone has to get it on their own and get a bucket. With this dosage of bigs and slower-footed defenders Wiggs has draped on him, we need more blow-bys and finishes at the cup. He has it in him, and I'll remain patient. He's better than 0.67 PPP in isolation with these matchups. 

Wiggins has done an excellent job moving without the ball. Those easy baskets lend to his productivity.

His 4-point plays are a new wrinkle in his arsenal. Wiggins is shooting better from triple while getting clobbered. 

It's been a relieving start for Wiggs. He hasn't been perfect, but Miami is glad it's getting his game, rather than the nothing they got from Butler in the last two months. We can also be relieved because Wiggs will continue to get comfortable, and these bunnies shouldn't continue to clank.

Have you ever seen a dog Chihuahua sized but strong as a Mastiff? 

Wiggs has room to grow, but it feels like it can only go down for Davion Mitchell. We're not wishing that on him, but he's been special. On both sides, I must say.

His tenacious pitbull energy earned him a starting spot before he stepped foot in Miami. He's a dog. However, the 3-point makes and willingness to push the pace are pleasant surprises in his 224 Heat minutes.

Mitchell shoots up the court like a speeding bullet. He squats up with the behemoths in the paint and doesn't look back. Pace, pace, pace. That was a talking point during the pre-season, but Mitchell's addition brings that philosophy to life.

Pace isn't strictly fastbreaks, but the 24th-ranked fastbreak Heat are plus-5.0 in transition with Mitchell on the floor. His hit-ahead and hardball passes aren't detrimental to a team starving for more up-tempo baskets. Miami is getting into transition more with Mitchell, and when he knocks down his treys, he's an impact player.

The Hawks learned the second time that leaving Mitchell can be a recipe for a human torch night. NBA players should make open shots, but Monday's Hawks game was a 0-star Rotten Tomatoes episode. Mitchell helped Miami recover, going A+ from 3. This was Mitchell's first time going 5/5 from 3 in his NBA career. He's up to 46% on 3.7 attempts in his Heat minutes.

The ridiculous on-ball foul drawing shows Mitchell's pound-for-pound strength and slippery agility. 

The way he gets under screens is college textbook-worthy. Mitchell works early, getting a forearm out to feel where the screen is coming from. Then his light ballerina-like feet do half of the work as he taps into his matchup and slithers by the screener. It takes high-end agility to slip and evade as Mitchell does. Erik Spoelstra is ecstatic with a die-fighting point-of-attack guard on his roster. He may not have to answer the Terry Rozier questions much longer. 

The Heat are without 2 1,100 minute+ players

Davion Mitchell's positive minutes have led to Terry Rozier being plastered on the bench. It's no secret the fan base wasn't loving the ill-advised sidestep jumpers, but he continued to be a regular in the rotation. His absence hasn't made too much of a difference, though.

Rozier's been a coach's decision DNP over the last two games, and the Heat again had their worst offensive game of the year, followed by their best. This is still the same inconsistent, unpredictable Heat bunch staring at their third straight play-in appearance. The loss of Nikola Jovic is the real crushing absence, and not even from a win/loss perspective.

Jovic is part of the core—he'll either have idle development, reach his potential stardom in Miami, or continue to grow and be included in a deal for a game-changer. To achieve stardom, he needed more reps on the floor. Jovic's season has been one of ebbs and flows, but the goods were there. He's out for at least a month. Hopefully, he can help the Heat make their inevitable play-in run if he's back in time.

The Miami Heat are trending toward very familiar territory 

Tyler Herro's 40-point game against the Milwaukee Bucks went to waste, as he got zero help in the final period. Dyson Daniels of the Atlanta Hawks put Herro in handcuffs the very next game. That type of game by game unpredictably is one of the reasons the Heat are in the play-in race. Again. 

That isn't to say Herro is inconsistent and the Heat's problem. It's just a microcosm of the Heat's season: good game, then bad game, cycle, repeat. That's why they headed towards a 7-10 finish in the East.

Even if they go on a 30-11-like run to end the year, Miami doesn't control its destiny at all. The six-seeded Detroit Pistons are on a sizzling 8-game winning streak. The Bucks, who walked Miami down Saturday night, aren't the most consistent team, but they'd have to collapse while Miami flames on to catch them. It's unlikely any of the top 4 seeds drop that far, either.

So the Heat must scratch and claw their way through the nerve-racking single (or double if you finish 7/8 and lose twice) elimination game tournament. I've been screaming into several microphones about how this season is a development season. It's sucks Jovic got hurt. But Rozier is gorilla glued to the bench, and Kel'el Ware is impacting shots more than blocking them, in the words of Eric Reid.

Bam Adebayo and Herro are staples. The additions of Wiggs and Mitchell can either be temporary feel-good stories or pieces to the larger puzzle. Regardless, this team is headed to the play-in. It'll be hard to catch the sixth seed and close to mathematically impossible to finish worse than the Bulls/Nets/76ers trio of meh.

Stats as of 02/27/25 via PivotFade, NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, and PBP Stats.