Imagine, for a minute, a version of Davion Mitchell who can consistently knock down a high volume of jump shots. Depending on how much value you assign to pick-up-basketball takeaways, neither you nor me nor the Miami Heat have to imagine for much longer.
Speaking on a recent episode of The Kevin O’Connor Show, TrueHoop’s David Thorpe waxed poetic about Mitchell cracking the code to improve his jump shot. “I saw Davion in L.A. this summer playing pick-up,” he said (h/t Luca Rosano of NBA Analysis). “It’s just pick-up basketball, but I thought he had great command. His shot looked great. I think he’s figured out how to shoot. Just by being a shooter and then an ace defender, he’s a net positive player for them.”
That last point may be the understatement of the century. Mitchell is among the NBA’s most suffocating on-ball defenders. If he is suddenly going to be an above-average shooter, on real volume, he’s not simply a net-positive player. He’s one of the Heat’s most valuable players, on one of the league’s best contracts. Period.
Believe in Mitchell’s improvement when you see it
Offseason lore is littered with tales of players who allegedly made substantial improvements to their outside touch, only to never deliver on the rumored goods when they take the floor. We should not assume Mitchell will become one of Miami’s most lethal floor-spacers.
Still, there is hope this could be a real development.
At 27, Mitchell is not incapable of getting better. He drilled 44.7 percent of his three-pointers to close the regular season after being traded to the Heat. Then, through four playoff appearances, he proceeded to knock down 55.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples, and more critically, 40 percent of his pull-up threebies.
Small-sample disclaimers apply. Mitchell launched under four total three-pointers per 36 minutes last season—a career low. He has ranked in the 50th percentile or better of catch-and-shoot volume just once (in 2024), and this past year was the first time he ever drilled pull-up treys with above-average efficiency, according to BBall Index.
Bake in an unsettlingly low free-throw percentage (sub-70 for his career), and skepticism must be the default.
Mitchell changes everything if his jumper is for real
Even so, Mitchell has always been a willing pull-up jump-shooter, ranking inside the 63rd percentile or higher attempts per 75 possessions in every season of his career. If that volume is now paired with better efficiency, it could change everything.
Remember, Mitchell’s role is about to increase with Tyler Herro missing the start of the regular season. The Miami transplant will have every opportunity to prove his outside touch and command are better than ever.
Fast forward to the end of November, and if Mitchell is shooting something like 37 or 38 percent from deep, on meaningful volume, we’re talking about a player who can guard the other team’s best player on offense and stretch opposing defense. Those archetypes are absurdly valuable—and incredibly rare.
In this case, Mitchell would amount to basically Lu Dort with better handling, and vision. That is terrifying…for the rest of the league. Whether it’s an attainable vision is a different story. But we’re about to find out.