The Miami Heat already knew they had a huge franchise-changing decision in front of them later this summer. However, the Chet Holmgren extension is only going to make Tyler Herro more likley that he's going to get his. The only question is, will that be from the Heat or another team? That's the dilemma Miami now has on its plate.
Earlier this week, Holmgren signed a five-year, $250 million max rookie extension with the Oklahoma City Thunder. If Holmgren hits every incentive in that contract, he could be making close to $50 million per season. That's a very similar contract extension that Herro is eligible to sign with the Heat later this summer.
But Herro has to be thinking: "Well, if Holmgren got it, I certainly deserve it." And honestly, he's probably not wrong.
Comparing Herro and Holmgren isn't fair
Admittedly, it's difficult to compare two players like Holmgren and Herro. They have two very different styles of basketball and play two different positions. It's not fair to either player to compare them straight up. But one thing you can compare is their respective impacts on their teams.
When it comes to the counting stats, there's no question Herro laps Holmgren, especially considering one was an All-Star this past season and the other wasn't.
However, as far as overall impact, the argument could be made that it's Holmgren who makes the much bigger difference for the Thunder than Herro makes for the Heat.
Holmgren brings a level of versatility to Oklahoma City's frontcourt that few other players in the NBA can offer. He's a merchant on the defensive end and has a unique ability to cover large areas of space from the perimeter to the paint. Even offensively, Holmgren is one of the more adaptable bigs in the NBA, as a three-level threat on that end of the floor, too.
I wouldn't go all the way to say that the Thunder don't win the 2025 NBA Championship without Holmgren, but he certainly alters the dynamic of the team tremendously when he's on the floor.
Measuring Herro's impact for the Heat
Where it's simple to see Holmgren's impact on a team like the Thunder, it's much different to do so for Herro on the Heat. Part of that could be attributed to Miami's struggles and lack of overall talent compared to Oklahoma City. But that could also help build the argument against the Heat paying Herro that much money.
The bottom line is that Herro probably isn't a first or second option on a championship team in the NBA. And that's the biggest problem for the Heat. Because if Herro isn't a first or second option, then how could they responsibly pay him $50 million per season, a contract that's going to handcuff this team from making bigger moves?
That's all completely understandable, but that's also why the extension for Holmgren is going to complicate things for Miami. In a vacuum, if Holmgren is getting a similar contract number, then Herro probably deserves it too. But that doesn't mean it has to come from the Heat.
The biggest issue that presents itself for Miami is not whether or not Herro is worth $50 million. It's the ill-effects that paying Herro that contract is going to have in limiting the team to build out a proper championship roster in the way the NBA blueprint is currently changing.
Miami already had a big decision on its hands on the horizon. Holmgren's contract extension is only going to make their lives that much more difficult in navigating the next few months with Herro.