As a general rule, NBA front offices avoid negotiating trades from a position of weakness. But the Miami Heat may be forced to do just that after Thursday night’s outspoken press conference.
The window to maximize Butler’s trade value was in the summer, when the Heat reportedly rebuffed overtures from the New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors and potentially others.
The next-best window might have passed when Butler was playing well and the Heat were reportedly open to listening to offers.
In both instances, the Heat front office would have been negotiating from a stronger position than they are now. After Butler’s revealing press conference in which he implied he was unhappy and the ensuing trade request, it appears the Heat have little choice but to trade him. Butler played his final card and made a public mess. Now, his value is as low as it’s been since the Heat acquired him via sign-and-trade in 2019.
Jimmy Butler's value has never been lower.
Whatever offers or frameworks of deals the Heat didn’t deem suitable in December might not be on the table anymore. Trading for Butler, engaged and playing well, is one thing. Rival teams would rightly be hesitant to trade for Butler at this disgruntled state, especially if there are questions about his age, fit and contract.
It’s unlikely that the Heat can extract like value for Butler. Any hopes of acquiring a highly-regarded young player or promising draft pick might be dashed.
We can debate whether or not the Heat should have traded Butler earlier. That’s not important anymore. What isn’t debatable is that his value was higher then than it is now. Miami’s front office can’t get caught up in sunk costs or what they suppose Butler’s value should be. Pat Riley and Co. made their decision, and now the market will decide Butler’s worth.
This isn’t to say the Heat should take anything. One thing they can’t do is take on more long-term money. Taking Phoenix’s Bradley Beal back, for instance, is a non-starter.
Helpful role players? Expiring salary? Even without any draft picks coming back? It’s at least worth a conversation.
Despite everything that has gone down, there’s no guarantee that Butler opts out of his $52.4 million salary for next season. If he opts in with the intent of maximizing his earning power, he can make things even more uncomfortable in the fall.
Say the Houston Rockets offer Fred VanVleet, who has a team option for next season that can be easily exercised to create the cap space that Butler would provide if he opts out. Getting the guarantee of financial flexibility could be worth considering.
Working with interested parties in building a deal is the job now. If the Suns are truly (still) motivated to acquire Butler, then work with them to find a third team to take Beal’s contract. (Easier said than done, I know.)
If there’s a way to manage the locker room between now and the offseason, then trading Butler to a preferred destination as part of a sign-and-trade would open up more ways to add to this team, including a trade exception worth more than $40 million.
But those conversations can start now as the Heat gather intel on teams willing to pay Butler and help facilitate a sign-and-trade in the summer.
They can make a deal now, before the Feb. 6 trade deadline or in the summer. But whenever they do it, they should be prepared for a step back.
It’s time to go from “open to listening to offers” to shopping. Meet Butler where he is. The meme of the gamer leaning forward in his chair comes to mind.
Everyone deserves a little blame for how we got here. At the same time, all positions are understandable.
Butler helped guide the Heat to one of the great eras in franchise history. Now he wants out. The past is the past, and any sense of nostalgia has gone up in flames. So has most of Butler’s trade value. When the Heat realize that, then everyone can move on.