Too early to panic about Miami Heat youngster's rough start

After having one of the better rookie seasons, Jaime Jaquez Jr. hasn’t had a perfect start to his sophomore season. Not only hasn’t it been perfect, it’s also been pretty rough. But how big of a concern should this start be going forward?

Did the league somehow figure out Jaquez’s game? Was he great last year because the defense didn’t scout him? Did he suddenly forget how to do everything he’s done well? Or is it a combination of health, different roles, and a sophomore slump?

That’s what we’ll be going through here. Why has Jaquez come out with such a slow start? What even are the issues here? And how likely is it that he’s going to bounce back?

Firstly, let’s compare his stats to last year (stats as of 29th November):

• 14.2 vs 15.7 points per 75 possessions

• 9.6 vs 5.0 rebounds

• 3.9 vs 3.4 assists

• 44.0% vs 53.6% eFG

• 48.1% vs 57.4% TS

• 55.8% vs 42.3% 2pt

• 33.3% vs 32.3% 3pt

• 20.6% vs 18.7% usage

• 16.2% vs 13.9% assist

• .293 vs .251 free throw rate

We immediately see huge drop-offs in efficiency. The volume and the simple box-score stats are relatively the same, with a few increases here and there.

However, his rebounding has almost doubled! I want to briefly touch on that point because it is impressive. His ORB% went up from 4.4% to 7.5% and his DRB% went from 11.0% to 20.7%. He’s crashing the glass on both ends. They're also not easy rebounds. His contested rebound percentage went from 28.9% to 35.3%. He’s hustling to either get stops or get more opportunities. Fun stat! Out of 194 players under 6 foot 7, he’s tied second in offensive rebound chances with 4.1. and seventh in ORB per game.

The first point we need to address is the change in role and who he plays with. Whenever there's a drastic change in a player's game, whether positive or negative, the first thing to look out for is asking if they're being used differently.

The biggest change in rotation has been who he plays with. Last year, he spent more time with Jimmy Butler. In 53 games, they played 729 minutes together (13.7 minutes per game). That was 52.6% of his total minutes. This year, in eight games, they have played 82 minutes (10.2), which is 45.8% of his total minutes. That's change number one. He's playing more minutes without Butler.

That makes a difference. Last year, the bench lineups with Butler, Jaquez, and Kevin Love were elite offensively. Butler was surrounded by spacers and smart players who could play off the ball. With both Jaquez and Butler on, 61.4% of his 2-point shots were assisted. This year, that has dropped to ZERO. All of his 2s are unassisted, even when playing with Butler.

We can see that immediately in his shot diet compared to last year. His assisted percentage shots at the rim went from 62.0% to 26.1% and his short mid-range went from 37.8% to 14.3%. That's a significantly increased responsibility in creating his own shot.

The Heat have been pushing him to be more of the on-ball player and ball handler with or without better players. That certainly can contribute to a player's efficiency dropping because self-created shots are much more difficult and we'll get to that, but surprisingly, that hasn't been the biggest reason why it has dropped.

Jaquez's biggest reason for drop off has been because of the easy shots, rather than the more difficult, self-created ones. Here are some of the shots by dribbles and touch time compared to last year:

• <1 dribbles: 33.3% vs 63.3%

• 2+ dribbles: 46.8% vs 49.8%

• Touch <2s: 40.0% vs 65.9%

• Touch 2-6s: 41.4% vs 47.3%

• Touch 6s+: 45.5% vs 55.6%

That's strange that a player has this of a drastic drop-off on easier shots. These should be your opportunistic shots. Your cuts and putbacks. The volume dropping makes sense with being used more on-ball but to cut your efficiency in almost half is eye raising.

These are the shots that he used to make with ease. It's what made him such an elite off-ball player:

For a player to be an effective off-ball player, they need to be efficient and one way to do that is finishing at the rim, especially when they are created for you.

You also have him struggling in transition, which was another area that he excelled in and was another way of getting easy points. He shot 60.4% from the filed on 1.8 FGA last year. That dropped to 38.9% on 1.5.

This is where I don't see the argument for the defense figuring him out. How does a defense figure out a player finishing point-blank layups on back cuts? How does a defense figure out a player not being able to finish dunks? This part of his struggle tells me something about his body isn't right. A player doesn't forget how to make layups when it's that big of a drop-off. That argument would be more of his post-ups, isolation, and PNR. These are things a defense can pick up on or learn to adjust.

I've seen people have that take that the defense figured him out last year when he hit his rookie wall, but the stats don't hold up. Last year, post injury from January 27th, he shot 65.5% on 4.9 FGA(31.7% freq) and 45.7% on 5.1(33.1%) in the short mid-range. Even until February where he struggled the most where he also had 48.1 TS, he still shot 70.0% at the rim.

This is again evidence that something is wrong with him. Maybe he's not 100%. Maybe something is affecting the lift that prevents him from getting easier looks or being able to finish through contact. I don't think I've seen a player outside of health or age have this kind of drop-off in just a few months. It hasn't been that long since he was shooting 80% at the rim in the playoffs against an elite defense!

This is something I hope will bounce back and I don't see a reason it shouldn't. This seems to be more physical and health wise than anything defense related.

Because outside of this, he has looked good to me. He hasn't looked bad enough to warrant a big outrage. If anything, he has continued to show flashes of what he can do with more responsibilities on-ball.

There are still questions and concerns about the self-created finishing that also showed up last year, which also played a part in his poor efficiency. Here are his shooting stats through 12 games compared to last year:

• Rim(within 4ft per PBP Stats): 51.1% on 8.7 FGA per 100(48.9% freq) vs 65.3% on 6.0(36.4%)

• Short mid-range(4-14ft) 26.9% on 5.0(28.2%) vs 47.2% on 5.1(31.3%)

What’s encouraging is he’s at least getting there at a much higher rate. There’s no decline in getting to the rim or getting consistent paint touches either through the post or off the dribble. To me, that's the more important part.

For the most part, he's missing open looks. Here are his stats compared to last year by closest defender:

• 0-2ft (very tight): 50.0% on 1.3(22.0% of 2PT) vs 48.6% on 1.4(21.2%)

• 2-4ft (tight): 46.2% on 3.3(55.9%) vs 54.8% on 3.8(57.5%)

• 4-6ft (open): 23.1% on 1.1(18.6%) vs 60.0% on 0.9(13.6%)

• 6ft+ (wide open): 33.3% on 0.3(5.1%) vs 70.6% on 0.5(7.5%)

The biggest difference is not making open shots, but somehow still generating them despite the defense figuring him out. He's 4 for 16 on open or wide open 2s! If he shoots at least 50%, that already boosts him to 47% from 2pt, which looks better than 42%.

The ability to create good looks in isolation is still there. You can see him plenty of times taking all kinds of defenders off the dribble and getting separation in the paint. At the 23s mark, he bulldozed his way through Tyrese Haliburton as if he was not even there. In the following clip, he did a similar thing to Naz Reid! The defense hasn't figured out how to stop him from going downhill. There's a reason why his rim rate is almost half of his shots.

Another slightly encouraging part in his isolations and drives is the passing out of it:

The encouraging part is that he has been able to get downhill to the point that the defense has to send extra help, which opens up the passing windows. He has been able to get way closer to the rim that collapses the defense. That's still a good thing that regularly happens.

The less encouraging part is the volume it's at. This also plays a part in the poor finishing. Too often he settles for a contested shot with two or more bodies swallowing him up. That's where he gets out of controls and chucks something up. Combine that with more of these shots with the increased responsibility, it can easily add up. He needs to learn to pass out of traffic.

He averages 9.6 drives per 36 minutes where he shoots 51.4% there and also passes out on 30.4% of the drives, as well as getting an assist on 7.2% of the time. That pass-out percentage is much lower than last year where it was at 42.1%. He needs to pass more!

Surprisingly, though, he hasn't been used a lot in the post. This is the part where I do see some kind of argument that the defense may have figured out his moves. The moves there aren't hitting the same as they did last year. He looks more out of control. He looks sped up. And at times, he finds himself picking up the dribble with nowhere else to go. Maybe that's why the volume has dropped off.

Finally, his volume as the ball handler in the pick and roll has gone up. That has also seen the biggest improvement statistically. He's scoring 1.04 points per possession on 2.3 possessions(22.1% freq) compared to 0.83 on 1.6(13.4%) last year. He's increased efficiency alongside more volume. That's all very encouraging.

Similar to isolations, you can also see how often he's able to turn the corner or create space for himself. The struggle again shows up once he's deep in the paint or at the rim, but he has routinely got both feet deep in the paint with the defense collapsing. That's tough to teach. He has been ultra-aggressive when attacking out of a PNR. On top of that, there also seems to be more counters with some change of speed and direction if he doesn't fully turn the corner.

This was probably the more impressive development, but he has looked to make more reads out of it too. There were some skip passes, kicks to open shooters in the corner, and recognizing when the defense collapses a lot early.

So, the slow start has been made worse than it is. He is playing with different players compared to last year, with the majority being less of Butler and more of Terry Rozier. He's also being put in a different role that has him more of a primary ball handler in the PNR. Those two points alone can cause a player's efficiency to decline.

But in his case, most of it comes down to not finishing on easy, opportunistic buckets. It's missing on cuts and putbacks. It's missing point-blank bunnies at the rim. Those areas aren't something that declines in a span of few months because of the defense. This seems more of an issue with the body and health. That can explain a lot of the easy misses, such as blowing dunks.

Because when looking at his self-creation, he's still able to generate as many open looks as he did last year. His rim rate has increased. He's able to draw fouls at a higher rate. He still consistently gets both feet in the paint that has collapsed the defense. That is equally as important and somehow the defense wasn't able to figure that out.

Right now, the level of concern is low for me. I do expect a strong bounce back from him.