The root of the Miami Heat's struggles has been difficult to pinpoint. A combination of poor late-game execution, defense and integrating new faces could all be contributing factors. But there is an even more troubling stat that ties into this.
Miami has lost 12 of their last 16 games, dropping to seven games below .500 at a 29-36 record.
Unfortunately, there aren't any greener pastures on the horizon anytime soon. The Heat are beginning a difficult stretch of upcoming games against several playoff contenders. This includes marquee matchups against the reigning champion Boston Celtics and Jimmy Butler’s return to Miami with the Golden State Warriors.
The team has gone from years of being viewed as an underdog postseason threat to fighting for mediocrity. Once in the fight for the Eastern Conference’s fifth seed, Miami’s season-worst five game skid has seen them dip to the ninth seed.
Additionally, the Heat are only two games in front of the Chicago Bulls for the 10th seed and final play-in spot. Some would wonder how Miami has truly gotten this worse, but some interesting analytics may help provide some answers.
The Miami Heat have statistically remained mediocre even when their top-two players are on the court.
Despite Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo both being reputable All-Star talents, the on-court production hasn’t looked impressive with that duo playing together. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat have a plus/minus of exactly 0.0 with Herro and Adebayo on the court.
Granted, the pairing hasn’t had a clear negative impact in their minutes. But they should still be a lot better as established All-Star caliber players.
Instead, Miami looks like a team that has zero impact players on their roster. Adding another one-time All-Star in Andrew Wiggins into the mix only makes that notion more concerning.
The clear problem is that each of Herro and Adebayo, and even Wiggins, are all perfect supplemental stars to a true number one option. But they are all playing out of natural roles, left by Butler’s void. Hopefully, that is a roster change that could be addressed as soon as this summer.
There’s no point of making the playoffs:
— 𝙃𝙚𝙖𝙩𝘾𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 (@WadexFlash) March 13, 2025
Avoid being embarrassed in the first round, getting two great first round picks and acquire another star in the summer such as KD or Trae.
Come back rested, more motivated and stronger next season. pic.twitter.com/xkr0f4X0K0
There is no more sugar coating it— the Heat are not a good team anymore. Considering all the issues both on and off the court the 2024-25 campaign has brought from start to finish, this has appeared to be a lost season at the expense of a talented roster on paper.