On the heels of having left ankle surgery, Tyler Herro is unlikely to reach an extension agreement with the Miami Heat, according to Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. But what if his lengthy absence to start the season actually has the opposite effect?
Herro’s injury is not considered ultra-serious in the grand scheme of things. He should be back in the rotation before the end of November. Thanks to their heist of a Norman Powell trade, the Heat should have just enough remaining offensive firepower to tread water in Herro’s absence, and then get a better sense of who they are upon his return.
Still, injuries have a way of forcing players to grapple with hard truths. And right now, Herro could be coming to terms with a rather uncomfortable one.
Tyler Herro may not have a ton of suitors if he reaches free agency
Beginning October 1, Herro is eligible to sign a three-year, $150 million extension. The case for him to take less is not merely based on his injury providing a glimpse into the fragility of NBA careers. It is also ingrained into Miami’s own pursuit of another star.
For all the talk about the Heat potentially chiseling out over $90 million in cap space during the 2027 offseason, they have quietly telegraphed that their next big-time acquisition will come via trade. That’s the correct approach. As we have reiterated ad nauseam around these parts, superstars are not leaving in free agency anymore. Heck, they aren’t even reaching the open market anymore.
To that end, other teams are following Miami’s lead. Even the Los Angeles Lakers, who play in the league’s most desirable market, are veering away from their cap-space plans. And as teams no longer prioritize spending power, the prospective number of suitors Herro can leverage against the Heat in 2027 will invariably decline.
This says nothing of the divisive views toward guards who aren’t quite point guards, and can’t scale up to wing minutes. Herro is significantly better than Jalen Green, Cam Thomas, Quentin Grimes, Anfernee Simons, Collin Sexton, et al. But all of those guys have struggled to net long-term deals (Green, Thomas, Grimes), or secure larger returns in trade talks (Sexton, Simons).
Again: Herro doesn’t deserve to be looped under the same umbrella as them. The passing, in particular, separates him from the field. Still, he’s also not guaranteed to enter 2027 free agency to a parade of lucrative fanfare.
The Heat could sell Herro on locking down long-term security
Combine all of this with Herro’s recent injury, and the stage is set for Miami to peddle the importance and incentives of long-term security.
That’s not akin to saying the Heat should tender a bottom-dollar offer, and expect him to sign it. Given everything, though, it does feel as if scenarios featuring more team-friendly extension outcomes are likelier than before.
If nothing else, despite Winderman report, we can’t close the door on a deal getting done for less than the max. Not only are the Heat no longer married to prioritizing future cap space, but just as critically, Herro doesn’t seem to hold the leverage so many assumed that he did.