Pelle Larsson was already in line for a bigger role with the Miami Heat entering his sophomore season. Now, he’s on track for an ever bigger one—a potentially huge one, in fact.
Tyler Herro is going to miss the next two months after undergoing surgery on his left ankle. That leaves the Heat in lurch through the start of November. Not only is Herro coming off a career year in which he made the All-Star Game, but he’s the team’s leading scorer, and paced them in assists as well.
Miami’s offense was already at a disadvantage with him. It has no top-tier creator. Herro is their best passer, which is a testament to his evolution, and also not ideal. Without him, the Heat’s offense could be subject to complete and utter implosion.
Surviving his absence—and however long he’ll need to recapture his form upon return—will be a task undertaken by committee. No one, though, stands to see their importance skyrocket more than Larsson.
The Heat need Pelle Larsson to play a big role without Herro
Trading for Norman Powell looks like an even better move following the Herro news. Miami, of course, also has Bam Adebayo’s versatile stylings at its disposal. Neither of them, however, fills the conventional perimeter-playmaking void that Herro (temporarily) leaves in his absence.
Truth be told, the Heat lack this skill set even with their 25-year-old All-Star guard. He is more of a side-to-side operator, rather than someone who gets into the teeth of set defenses.
Larsson checks more of those boxes. Despite a dearth of explosion, he attacks at a varying cadence that allows him to get past or go through defenders. Give him a ball screen, don’t give him a ball screen—it doesn’t matter. His outside shooting is dicey, and the 67.2 percent clip he posted at the foul line as a rookie doesn’t engender much confidence. But he showed flashes of knocking down more spot-up jumpers during Miami’s first-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The finishing around the rim also isn’t the cleanest. Larsson ranked in the 37th percentile last year of efficiency at the hoop. For now, the volume matters more, particularly when it comes with an affinity for drawing contact. He just posted Miami’s second-highest foul rate on drives.
The state is set for a Pelle Larsson breakout
Even after Herro comes back, Larsson is on course to get plenty of ball-handling reps. He is the player on the roster best suited to give his injured running mate a meaningful reprieve.
Last season, Herro posted a true usage rate—which takes into account scoring possessions, assists and potential assists—of 46.88, according to Ball Index. That was nearly 10 points higher than the next biggest mark among rotation players. Adebayo’s true usage came in 47.3.
Herro’s 21.5 potential assists per 100 passes were also by far and away the highest of any Heat player who logged at least 100 minutes. Larsson has the on-ball chops to pick up some of that slack, in ways Powell isn’t wired to, and in ways for which rookie Kasparas Jakucionis isn’t ready.
Between his live-dribble passing and ability to get downhill and draw fouls, Larsson may actually be the perimeter ball-handler, aside from Herro, best suited to run the entire offense. And if that proves true, his breakout no longer becomes a matter of if. Instead, it’ll be a matter of fact.