The math sounds easy. Take the tough-as-nails, surprisingly potent Miami Heat, add a healthy Tyler Herro (the team's leading scorer and lone All-Star last season), and it all equals a full-fledged contender in the wide-open Eastern Conference, right?
That's one way to calculate this, honestly. The reality, though, is that the situation is much more complicated than it appears. That's partly due to the uncertainties of how he'll look following left ankle surgery and partly due to the adjustments he must make in Miami's new-look offense, but it mostly stems from the fact that his addition will force some subtractions within the deep rotation responsible for this strong start.
When Herro is back in the mix, someone—or maybe a few players—will inevitably be left out of it. And while Heat fans have good reason to believe head coach Erik Spoelstra will get this right, it's still a monumentally tricky decision to make and one that could have far-reaching ramifications on this roster as a whole.
This entire rotation will feel the effects of Herro's return—for better and worse.
Assuming Herro feels no ill effects from the surgery, this offense should fit him well. The egalitarian approach might take some touches and shots away from him, but the focus on playing with pace, moving off the ball, and quick-firing threes should all fit him like a glove. He was Miami's best catch-and-shoot option last season, per NBA.com, and he should feast on those looks once again.
The cuts to the rotation will be difficult, though. Everyone who has handled regular minutes so far has earned them. There just won't be nearly as many to go around once the Heat have Herro, who averaged a team-high 35.4 in 2024-25.
He shouldn't have to hit that number again, but even if he's close to it, that'll mean multiple players are either losing their spots outright or seeing a significant reduction in floor time. Sitting one of Pelle Larsson or Dru Smith wouldn't make a big enough dent.
So, does Spo dial things back for Sixth Man of the Year candidate Jaime Jaquez Jr.? Would the Heat have enough movement shooting to push forward without Simone Fontecchio? Could Nikola Jovic's sluggish start move him even further down the pecking order?
And what happens with newcomer Norman Powell? He'll still play plenty, obviously, but if Spo offers to stagger his two scoring guards, could Powell be looking at a bigger cut in floor time than anyone expects? And will he make the same impact if he's no longer handling such a featured role in the offense?
Everyone will feel the impact of Herro's return. Maybe the offense isn't quite as free-flowing with an All-Star guard back in primary ball-handling duties. Perhaps the Heat dial up more pick-and-roll plays now that they'll have a high-end creator at their disposal again. The pace should still be blistering, but things could look different when things slow down in the half-court.
Herro should be worth these adjustments, by the way. He is their shining star on the offensive end. And since he's still just 25 years old, it's possible his best basketball is still in front of him.
But that won't make these decisions any easier for Spo or the implications of them any easier on the players involved.