The start of the new NBA campaign has gone the best possible way for Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro. After years of inconsistency in his availability and efficiency, Herro has silenced the doubters by putting together his best season yet. He is a crucial part of Miami’s offense, and the polarizing player has proved just how impactful he can be.
Herro has always had the talent and ability to take an All-Star-worthy leap. Now in his sixth season in the league, it is all coming together. He is averaging 24.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists on 47% shooting and 42% from 3-point range. His scoring, passing and shooting efficiency are all at career-highs.
The Heat haven’t had a 24-points-per-game scorer since LeBron James in 2014. If Herro can keep this up, he will finally break that dry spell. He is reading the defense at such a high level and has gotten much more effective with his shot diet. There’s also been an increased level to his individual defense.
But most importantly, Herro has played in every game for Miami this season, after appearing in just 42 outings the year prior.
Let’s dive into identifying trends and future predictions from Herro amidst his career year.
Overview of the Last 10 Games
Over the last 10 games, Herro is averaging 23.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists on 42.8% shooting and 37% from 3-point range. These averages are being held back by a three-game stretch against the Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks where he didn’t score more than 18 points in each of them and struggled with his efficiency.
Herro shot just 19 of 54 from the field in those outings and an abysmal 6 of 29 from 3-point range. With how impressive of a season he has put together, he is entitled to a minor slump like this. But it affected his latest stock, despite dropping 31 points on a franchise-high seven made 3-pointers in a single quarter in the most recent win against the LA Lakers.
Key Trends from the Last 10 Games
The most notable trend from these recent games has been the 3-point volume. Herro has hoisted at least 10+ attempts from beyond the arc in eight of the last 10 games. Ultimately, he is just taking what the defense is giving him, but the 37% shooting in that area is down from his overall season average.
At one point, Herro was up to almost 48% from deep around the 10-game mark. Now 20 games into the season, it has dropped to a more realistic level. He should aim to stay around his current 42% average from deep to keep him at his career best.
Scoring Patterns
If it wasn’t for that little three-game slump, Herro’s scoring patterns would be higher than his season average recently. However, the 23.3 points in the last 10 matchups isn’t far off from his overall scoring production on the year.
He should be a safe bet to stay close to the 24+ points mark moving forward, but the Heat are going to ride whoever has the hot hand. Jimmy Butler breakout games slowed Herro’s scoring momentum down a bit, but the Lakers win gives him a nice base to build on in that department.
Efficiency Trends
Herro’s efficiency is at the best of his entire career right now, which is the major difference in his overall game. Outside of his splits from the field and on 3-pointers, he is also steadily improving from the free throw line. He has shot 88.1% from the charity stripe over the last 10, which is higher than his 85.7% season average.
It is unlikely that Herro would get back to his league leading free throw percentage from the 2022-23 season at an elite 93.4%. But he is always a trusted shooter from that department regardless.
Future Predictions
The All-Star leap makes for an intriguing future from Herro and his overall game. He is always a naturally streaky shooter, but the jump in his overall efficiency and offensive production will make him a focal point of Miami’s offense moving forward. He has been around the 24.0 point mark for the majority of the 2024-25 season, so staying around that average seems like a likely outcome for him.
He has shown that he can light it up at any given moment, as his confidence is at an all-time high and rightfully so. The Heat’s overall dynamic and strategy will keep Herro in the spotlight as a gifted playmaker for himself and others in coach Erik Spoelstra’s system.