The Miami Heat have ranked among the bigger surprises at the start of the 2025-26 NBA season while managing to make strides without injured All-Star guard Tyler Herro. With his debut getting closer by the second, Miami might be looking at another step forward, but only if the 25-year-old can quiet his critics once again.
Because it'll fall on his shoulders to find his fit with what this team is already doing, not the other way around. The Heat have clearly uncovered alternative scoring options, and their offense is in good shape even without his shot-making and creation. They don't have to cater to his game, in other words, so hopefully he can use this new, up-tempo, movement-heavy approach to summon his best version yet.
It's up to Herro to raise the Heat's ceiling.
While it's clear the Heat have exceeded expectations to this point, they haven't exactly changed their fortune or dramatically improved their standing in the hoops world.
They've done well to top out as pretty good, given the challenges they've faced—not having Herro for any games just yet and being without Bam Adebayo for basically half of them. But no NBA team wants to get stuck in the middle class, and that's exactly where the metrics put Miami: 14th in offense, 15th in defense, and 15th in net efficiency, per NBA.com.
This looks like a club that could be a handful for a higher seed in the opening round of the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra is a coaching genius, this offense is wholly unique, and this defense is, as per usual, relentless. The Heat would be a feisty first-round foe for just about anyone.
The organization's ambitions go far beyond that, though. Which is probably why the franchise is forever connected to seemingly any and every possible superstar pursuit. Because the brightest stars in basketball are almost always the biggest winners. And conventional wisdom holds that the Heat don't have that type of talent on their roster.
That's why a realistic look at Herro's return paints him as more of a helpful piece than a transformational one. He had his best season as a pro (by far) in 2024-25, and even then, he couldn't make Miami more than first-round fodder. And that was without having to bounce back from ankle surgery and adapt to an entirely new offensive scheme as he'll be doing now.
Is it asking too much for Herro to single-handedly change the Heat's fate? Probably—but that's also kind of a moot point. Because unless Miami embarks on an in-season whale hunt, Herro could be the brightest star in the Heat's orbit. Whether he's qualified to be a franchise centerpiece or not doesn't really matter when that's the exact role awaiting him.
So, does he have more to his game? Can he be the kind of player who paves the Heat's path from pretty-goodness to full-fledged greatness? There aren't a lot of reasons to think that he will, but Miami's entire season hinges on his ability to quiet the doubters once again.