The Miami Heat enters the opening night of the 2025-26 NBA season with a ton of question marks surrounding the team. After missing out on the Kevin Durant sweepstakes this offseason, the Heat made a couple of smaller moves to try to improve upon last season's first-round sweep.
But with the combination of injuries and a lackluster preseason, Miami is already facing long odds coming into Wednesday's contest against Orlando.
Miami is a massive underdog on opening night
Right now, Vegas oddsmakers have Miami as an 8.5-point underdog to the Magic on Wednesday. That makes the Heat the third biggest underdog out of anyone in the NBA. Only the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards have worse odds as 9.5-point underdogs in their respective games.
Yes, the Magic are expected to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference this season, but this is also an indictment of the current state of the Miami roster.
At the core of Miami's problems is the injury to Tyler Herro, which has created a domino effect that was on full display during the preseason.
The Heat lacked playmakers and couldn't shoot the three during their 0-6 preseason slate. Combined with a slew of other injuries that riddled Miami in October, Erik Spoelstra never really got to settle on a cohesive lineup during the tune-up games.
The preseason also revealed the very real flaws of the back end of Miami's roster, as guys like Pelle Larsson, Precious Achiuwa, and Keshad Johnson all had very poor preseason slates. Achiuwa's preseason was so bad that Miami released him rather than keep him as the 15th man on the roster.
Bright spots for Miami
But if one is looking for a bright spot ahead of opening night and looking for a pathway of how the Heat could pull off the upset, go back to the first game of the preseason slate.
Miami had a halftime lead in that game, and it didn't slip away until the starters had been pulled. For as much as three-point shooting was a problem for the Heat during the preseason, they actually shot 48% from three on that night.
If Miami suits up a full roster sans Herro, there is a pathway for the operation to still work. For example, in that first game, Jaime Jaquez Jr. was thrust into a starting role since Davion Mitchell was out, but JJJ emerged by the end of preseason as a great rotational option.
Rookie Kasparas Jakučionis also looked solid in the limited preseason action he got, and he, too, should provide a boost when healthy.
Opening night should reveal a lot for the Heat, and hopefully, it's not as bleak as Vegas thinks it will be.