What it would take for Heat to trade for Antetokounmpo (and the odds of it happening)

It’s been an uninspired start for the Milwaukee Bucks, prompting some NBA observers to wonder about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with the franchise. 

The Bucks are 1-4 despite Antetokounmpo averaging 30.4 points on 65.6% shooting, 11.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists. He’s still playing at an MVP level, but Milwaukee’s roster might not be good enough to compete for a championship. Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez are showing their age, Khris Middleton struggles to stay healthy and the roster lacks depth.

With little financial flexibility (third-highest payroll in the league) or assets to improve the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Milwaukee’s widow has closed.

According to CBS Sports’ Bill Reiter, rival front offices are wondering if Antetokounmpo could be the next star to request a trade. One executive mentioned the Miami Heat as a potential destination.

""Teams are circling -- and hopeful," one Western Conference team executive said. "

""I wouldn't be surprised if it happened by the trade deadline," said a top executive of a team that could be in the mix. "

"An Eastern Conference NBA executive has already heard the places believed to be Giannis' would-be preferred destinations: "The teams I've heard are Miami and New York -- the Nets, not the Knicks.""

While Giannis in a Heat jersey is an exciting thought for Heat fans, it’s unlikely.

For Heat fans, trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo is a pipe dream.

For one, Antetokounmpo is under contract for three more years. Even if he wanted to name his next team, he has little leverage. Like Lillard found out, it’s difficult for even star players to force their way to their preferred destination when they can’t refuse to re-sign with whatever team is acquiring them.

Even if Antetokounmpo requested a trade and the Bucks capitulated, the Heat would have a hard time competing with other potential offers. 

Miami has only one tradeable first-round pick (two if they adjust some protections). Young players like Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic and Kel’el Ware are – or are projected as – useful players, but none qualify as a blue-chip prospect worthy of an MVP return.

Would the Heat consider including Bam Adebayo in a deal? The Bucks would ask. Adebayo is 27 – three years younger than Antetokounmpo. He’s a three-time All-Star and perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate that most would consider a top-20 player in the NBA. He’s also the kind of player other stars want to play with. Adebayo could be the best player included in any Antetokounmpo deal and the Bucks could remain competitive with Bam, Lillard, Lopez and Middleton.

But trading Adebayo for Antetokounmpo – even if Antetokounmpo is clearly the better player – would be a difficult decision muddied by off-court matters. The Heat have spent the last year propping Bam up as the face of the franchise. Dwyane Wade recently remarked that he could be the next Heat player with a statue. Bam is beloved by the organization. 

But if Pat Riley believed that trading Adebayo (and whatever else) for Antetokounmpo would lead to a championship, it would toe the line of malpractice not to do it.

How much better is a roster built around Antetokounmpo and an aging Jimmy Butler than this current Heat core? Or Bucks core, for that matter? 

Those Heat would still deal with the current spacing issues presented by their two stars. Butler is generally healthier than Middleton, but he’s two years older. Even with Herro’s improvement this season, the Heat still don’t have an outside scoring threat of Lillard’s caliber.

They would be better coached and more organized. Maybe that’s all Giannis needs. But it would be a massive gamble. Butler could still decline his option and leave in free agency next summer, leaving the Heat with only a 30-year-old Giannis and bare cupboards. 

(The idea of trading Butler for Antetokounmpo makes little-to-no sense for the Bucks, so that’s a non-starter.)

Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets could offer picks and prospects that Milwaukee could use to restock their asset arsenal and rebuild while keeping their top players to pair with Giannis. The risk is not nearly as palpable, and the fit not as clunky, for those organizations.