Where Does Bam Adebayo Rank in DPOY Odds?

As the 2024-25 NBA season has tipped off, predictions around the Defensive Player of the Year award are already starting. Among the usual contenders, Bam Adebayo once again finds himself at the table but has yet to be the head of it.

Victor Wembanyama leads the DPOY race across multiple sports books, consistently holding the best odds. For instance, he is favored at odds as low as -200 on BetOnline and - 145 on FanDuel. Adebayo, meanwhile, is ranked behind him, with odds ranging from +1100 to + 1500, depending on the platform. It's also important to note that these odds are updated daily, but consensus candidates remain the same.

Here's how Adebayo compares to some of the other top candidates: Victor Wembanyama as stated earlier is dominating the odds, reflecting widespread confidence in his defensive capabilities. Chet Holmgren stays competitive, with odds generally around +700 to +1200, indicating solid backing. Bam Adebayo ranks significantly lower than his usual status as a perennial finalist, showcasing odds of +1200 on BetOnline and +1500 on Caesars. Evan Mobley and Rudy Gobert are both in the mix, with odds varying between +1200 and +1600.

It's striking to see Adebayo's odds, especially on Caesars Sportsbook, where he's listed at +1500. This places him behind not only the other two higher contenders Wembanyama and Holmgren but also behind Anthony Davis and Mobley, despite Adebayo's reputation for elite defensive performance and his history as a top contender for the award.

Recent media narratives support this contrast; while some outlets like Fansided rank Adebayo as their top choice for DPOY, others like Bleacher Report and CBS Sports focus on Wembanyama's growing support among voters.

Understanding voter trends is crucial for Adebayo if he hopes to reclaim his standing in the DPOY race. Currently, several factors are influencing how voters perceive candidates.

One of the biggest factors for Wembanyama is the fact that he piles stats, and the media has already crowned him the DPOY winner for the foreseeable future. To be fair, they might be right. He's a very gifted player who captures both fan enthusiasm and the attention of award voters. No longer a rookie, he’s emerged as the league’s fresh, exciting defensive standout who can turn any block into a viral clip. Not to say Adebayo can't do this, but with the plays being made and with the rate Wembanyama does it, he'll have the casual viewers and the national media in the palm of his hand.

Another huge factor is you have to have major team success. You need the stats and you need to have your team at LEAST in the top three in defensive rating. Just look at the past couple of winners. Marcus Smart and his 2022 Boston Celtics were first in defensive rating, Jaren Jackson. Jr. and his 2023 Memphis Grizzlies were third and the 2024 Minnesota Timberwolves were led by Rudy Gobert. Yes, these are team stats. The media doesn't care. If you have the stats and you lead a top-three defense, you're probably a finalist if not the winner.

Not to throw random strays, but Mikal Bridges and his Phoenix Suns back in 2022 were in the top three in defensive rating and he was a finalist. He hasn't seen himself as a DPOY finalist since.

Adebayo would not only need his stocks but would need the Heat to be a top-three defense in the association and with a Tyler Herro-Terry Rozier backcourt, young Nikola Jovic, and an aging Jimmy Butler as his best option, it's not likely. But the fact that his name is still on the list and he's heavily ranked third means he's not out of it.

He's recognized as one of the best, he just needs a real Mona Lisa-level type of defensive season to help bring it home. Players like Ben Simmons, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Marcus Smart have all either won the award or come closer than Adebayo, yet they fade away and the man in Miami remains.

Essentially, enhancing his defensive metrics by improving his stats in steals and blocks can provide tangible evidence of his defensive impact, setting him apart from other candidates. Advanced stats can make you the analytics darling, but balancing that and your base defensive stats is what brings the award home.

The other key is creating memorable moments. Highlight plays and game-changing defensive efforts can leave a lasting impression on voters. Sounds easier said than done, but when you're not a 7-foot-phenom, it's going to be a lot harder.

As the season is just getting its legs and starting to walk, it's important to know who is in the running for what award and how the media views the requirements for them. It'll be a fascinating journey to see if Adebayo can shift the narrative, stand out amidst changing voter trends, and finally bring home the award he feels he's robbed of every year.