Miami Heat Grab Bag: Thinking Ahead
By Wes Goldberg
Welcome to a weekly grab bag of thoughts and observations from the past few days in the world of Miami Heat basketball and the NBA.
Goran Dragic is Making James Ennis Better
According to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald, the Miami Heat are making an effort to make sure James Ennis is playing alongside Goran Dragic. They like the energy and athleticism that Ennis brings, combined with Dragic’s ability and preference to play fast.
"Heat forward James Ennis has earned recent minutes because he’s playing well, but a team official said Miami also likes how he plays alongside Goran Dragic. Dragic likes to run and the athletic Ennis is well-suited to the up-tempo game.Entering Tuesday’s game, Dragic had a better plus/minus with Ennis (Heat outscores teams by 14 when they’re paired) than anybody on the team except Chris Andersen. Dragic and Ennis were again on the floor during some very good moments in both halves tonight.Ennis, incidentally, entered tonight with a minus-36 plus/minus when not paired with Dragic, but his work the past week has been very good, the best of his rookie season."
Paired with Dragic on the court, Ennis is averaging 1.34 points per possession with a 69.1 true shooting percentage. Without Dragic, he’s averaging 1.07 points per possession with a true shooting percentage of 52.6 percent. Yeesh. That’s a difference.
This combo of Dragic and Ennis goes beyond Miami’s current playoff push. It’s also good news for Ennis, who hopes to remain on the team next season. The Heat invested a lot into Dragic, and already bowed to bringing his brother on board. If Dragic likes to play with Ennis, then young James may have some added job security.
Luol Deng’s Decision
Again, The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson:
"Heat forward Luol Deng said he hasn’t thought about, let alone decided, whether he will exercise his $10.1 million player option for next season. Deng, 29, said he likes it here. Realistically, the only reason to consider opting out is if he believes he can get a multiyear deal here or elsewhere at similar money, which is questionable. The Heat might be reluctant to make a commitment beyond next season."
Here’s a thought: Maybe the Heat would be better off if Deng opts out this summer.
Hear me out.
His points, rebounds and assists are all down. He’s been wildly inconsistence all season and doesn’t seem to have much left in the ole’ tank. Is it worth it for the Heat to pay him $10 million next season? That could help the Heat open up more cap room and use it to sign a younger player.
I doubt Pat Riley and the Heat would want Deng to walk. He’s likely the best small forward the Heat could get this offseason, he fills a major need and he fits the Heat culture. However, he may not be able to live up to that contract.
Mar 29, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra in the first half of a game against the Detroit Pistons at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
Should the Heat Tank?
Some interesting information on just how tanking would impact the future picks Miami owes Phoenix and how this could limit Miami’s trade opportunities in the near future over at HeatHoops.com.
Here’s the nut of it.
"If Miami were to tank in order to keep its 2015 first round pick, it would cause the Heat’s pick obligation to the Cavs to shift from 2015 to 2016. That, in turn, would cause the first of its two first round pick obligations to the Suns to shift from 2017 to 2018, in order to comply with the Stepien Rule. And since the second of its pick obligations to the Suns is guaranteed to be delivered in 2021, there simply wouldn’t be enough of a gap between the years 2018 and 2021 to trade any picks in between – trading the 2019 pick would only leave a one year gap (not the required two years) from 2018, and trading he 2020 pick would only leave a one year gap (not the required two years) from 2021.In fact, if the Heat were to keep its 2015 pick, the next pick eligible for trade would be two years after its final pick obligation to the Suns is satisfied, in 2023. And, because of the Seven Year Rule, even that pick couldn’t be traded until after the 2016 draft!"
This post lays out plenty of good information. However, it’s important to remember the Heat can choose a player with a pick and then trade the player without violating any rules. It’s also possible for the Heat to tank the rest of this season and then trade its lottery pick for future first round picks in order to fill their supply.
If the Heat end up with a top-10 pick (and therefor keep the pick) I think trading the pick to multiply assets might be the best move. However a guy like Kentucky’s Devin Booker, who could provide some natural shooting talent, is an intriguing option to backup D-Wade.
As much as Riley doesn’t like tanking and wants tom compete, there comes a point when the organization just needs to do the smart thing. Given that history shows no correlation in making it to the bottom of the playoffs and future success, and that the Heat have very few assets, it might be best to shut this season down.
Some Thoughts on the Value of Making the Playoffs
Speaking of the correlation of playoff experience and future success… there is a lot of chatter about just how valuable making the playoffs is for a team–especially one lacking in playoff experience in some areas. Miami’s core of Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng knows what it’s like to compete in the playoffs, but other young guys don’t.
In this post, I recorded and analyzed the data of all playoff seventh seeds since 1984. I found that making the playoffs as a low seed has very little correlation as to how a team performs the following season. You can check out the full post here.