Some Thoughts on the Value of Making the NBA Playoffs
By Wes Goldberg
As the Miami Heat stumble forward toward the NBA playoffs, there has been some chatter as to what a playoff berth and early elimination is actually worth. Even if Miami makes it beyond the first 82 games, it’s unlikely they would beat either the Atlanta Hawks or the Cleveland Cavaliers and make it beyond the first round. In fact, no eight seed with a losing record has ever won its opening series, according to data published by the Boston Globe.
So, assuming the Heat make the playoffs (for the purpose of this post) and lose in the first round (as history tells us they will), what benefit does such an experience have for Miami’s players?
Well as an eighth seed, not so much. According to the same piece by the Boston Globe, after making the playoffs as a No. 8 seed with a losing record, 60.9 percent of teams miss the playoffs the next season, 8.7 percent of teams are eliminated in the first round and 26.1 percent of teams are eliminated in the second round. Only one team has advanced to the NBA Finals and none have won a championship in the year immediately following.
Since the difference between the seventh and eighth seed in the East is just half a game, I went ahead and pulled the data for No. 7 seeds as well. Just as only five eight seeds in NBA history have advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs, so have only five seven seeds. Of those with losing records only one team has ever won its first round series (the 1986-87 Seattle Supersonics that went to the Western Conference Finals).
As for how teams fare the year after making the playoffs as a seventh seed:
[table id=13 /]
There doesn’t appear to be a correlation between making or missing the playoffs a year after being one of the bottom seeds, as 40 percent of teams that made the playoffs as a seventh seed missed the post-season the year after. Teams that made the playoffs as a seventh seed one year–regardless of record–have a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs the year after. With a pretty even 60-40 split, that playoff experience doesn’t seem to hold much weight when it comes to getting back to the post-season.
However, once in the playoffs, nine of the 24 teams (37.5 percent) advanced to the next round. Only one team with a losing record the year prior advanced beyond the first round–the 1984-85 Denver Nuggets who advanced to the Western Conference Finals. Two teams have made the NBA Finals a year after earning the seventh seed, but neither of them were No. 7 seeds with losing records. No seventh seed has gone on to win a title the year after.
It’s worth adding that three teams have won the championship after missing the playoffs all together the season before (the 2007-08 Celtics, 1991-92 Rockets and 1996-97 Spurs).
However, a more comparable team for next season’s Heat could be this season’s Hawks. Atlanta made the playoffs as a No. 8 seed with a losing record last season and will be the top seed this season. Like this Heat team, the Hawks dealt with crippling injuries that stumped their season, with Al Horford playing just 29 games.
Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside are expected to start next season healthy. It stands to reason the Heat will be better, but to what degree is the question. Will the playoff experience this team is gunning for make a difference next season? History says not really, but this year’s Hawks could provide some precedent.