A Look At The Miami Heat’s Projected Depth Chart
By Wes Goldberg
The Miami Heat are working on incorporating a lot of new players into a new system. As Erik Spoelstra, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh get used to life after, well, you know, there will likely be a lot of adjustments and changes. Tuesday night’s preseason win against the Houston Rockets have us a glimpse at how Spoelstra will use his players, at least at the beginning of the season.
The point guard rotation is still difficult to predict, and could be dictated by who among Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole and Shabazz Napier has the hot hand. Chalmers was the most effective of the three on Tuesday, so he closed the game. Napier, who closed many other preseason games, was zero-for-seven from the floor and Cole wasn’t aggressive on offense.
McRoberts hasn’t played all preseason, and Shawne Williams has gotten a lot of minutes in his place. He’s made the most of it, too, and looks like he will make the final 15-man roster.
Looking at who won’t make the team, we can assume Larry Drew II, Andre Dawkins, Tyler Johnson and Shawn Jones won’t make the regular season roster. One of either Justin Hamilton and Khem Birch will likely make the team.
Let’s take a look, based on how the preseason has played out–and, more specifically, the rotation used in Miami’s regular-season dress rehearsal against Houston–at Miami’s projected depth chart.
Point Guard
1. Norris Cole
2. Shabazz Napier
Cole has started most of the preseason, and it seems Spoelstra likes his on-ball defense to start games. Moreover, he may like Chalmers’ aggressiveness coming off the bench as the sixth man. Since Napier is just a rookie, that makes Cole the starter by default. We’ve talked a lot about the point guard battle in this space, but once Napier shows he can be consistent and earns the starting job, Cole becomes expendable.*
Shooting Guard
1. Dwyane Wade
2. Mario Chalmers
3. Shannon Brown
D-Wade has looked healthy and spry in the preseason. Hopefully that lasts this regular season and he doesn’t end up missing nearly 30 games like he did last season. Chalmers is listed as a shooting guard because he’s the sixth man, likely sliding in to rest Wade. Count him more as a combo-guard though. Like we saw against Houston, Spo’s willing to allow him to play off the ball or bring it up. Brown didn’t log any minutes against the Rockets and figures to be at the end of the bench. But he should see some time this season. On nights when Wade can’t go, he could even get the start in order to maintain the rotational pattern.**
Small Forward
1. Luol Deng
2. Danny Granger
3. James Ennis
Despite Spo playing around with different guys at small forward, some three-guard lineups and playing Granger at the 4 this preseason, Deng and Granger split all the minutes at small forward Tuesday against Houston. Deng played nearly 32 minutes and Granger nearly 16. That’s all 48 minutes. Maybe Granger plays some 4 and Ennis logs some time, but expect this to be the norm this season.***
Power Forward
1. Josh McRoberts
2. Shawne Williams
3. Udonis Haslem
McRoberts, still recovering from offseason toe surgery, hasn’t played this preseason. Williams has been starting in his place, playing upwards of 30 minutes per game. Look for McRoberts to get those minutes once he returns, something like 32 minutes a game. Williams has earned the backup power forward position, and should log nearly 10 minutes per game. As in years past, Haslem will be used sparingly. But his time will come.****
Center
1. Chris Bosh
2. Chris Andersen
3. Khem Birch
This is the most straight-forward position for the Heat. Bosh will log something close to 34 minutes per game and Andersen will get his usual 20. Birch will hardly play in the regular season and could be optioned to the Sioux Falls Skyforce in the D-League. Andersen remains the team’s third big, and we will see some Chris and Chris lineups this season when Bosh slides to the 4 spot.
*Napier is the more natural point guard on the roster. If he shows up, Cole could be moved from a 3-and-D wing or backup big. Just don’t expect a deal centered around a draft pick. A Cole for Shumpert swap–both on expiring deals–still makes sense for me.
**That’s quite a difference, I know. But Toney Douglas went from zero to 30 quite a few times last season and logged a few starts in Wade’s absence. Brown is the closest thing to Wade the Heat have in terms of his ball handling, defense and athleticism. Though, moreover, his drive to get to the rim is what’s most similar. If Wade has to sit out due to his knee, simply throwing Brown into the starting lineup makes the most sense.
***By the way, I wrote this in the pre-preseason version of this post: “When it comes to small forward, think 2010 Dallas Mavericks with Shawn Marion andVince Carter. Marion started games with defensive intensity and selective shooting while Carter came in later to add a scoring punch. That kind of complementary play is the best-case scenario for the Heat, with Deng a better version of Marion and Granger a less effective, less healthy version of Vince.”
****Justin Hamilton is absent from this depth chart, as he continues to recover from an off-season heart procedure. I’ll guess he recovers in the D-League before being an option to get called up once again.