After a rousing 3-0 start, the Miami Heat have dropped nine of their last 15 games and the LeBron James-shaped hole in AmericanAirlines Arena isn’t solely to blame. There’s been plenty of hoopla made about Miami’s inconsistent shooting—and we’ll get to that—but the problem starts on defense.
The Heat are allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions, a rating they haven’t come near since Erik Spoelstra’s first season as head coach in 2008-09. They are allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage to opponents, worse than only the Timberwolves, Lakers and Jazz.* The cause of the problem starts near the rim, where opponents are converting on 62.5 percent of their shots.
Spo has no one to throw at top-notch centers like Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. Those guys walked right over anyone in their way and dissolved the Heat defense from the inside-out. Miami tried fronting early on, but after those games against the Rockets and Hornets, they changed their approach. The Heat immediately double anyone who resembles a traditional 7-footer as soon as he gets the ball, crowding him and hoping he gets rid of the rock.
What happens is a ripple effect. The double team typically consists of the initial big man defender and the closest wing guy. If the Heat get their wish, the center will pass it out, triggering the Heat’s series of rotations and close outs we all know and love. But that’s a lot of ground to cover, and not everyone on this Heat team is suited to play at such a break-neck defensive pace (this is the problem that emerged last season).
The Heat know what they are getting themselves into. The trapping is meant to cause turnovers, but Miami hasn’t been getting as many. Last season the team forced 16.7 turnovers per game. Second best in the NBA. This season they are in the middle of the league, forcing 14.7 turnovers per game.
The other problem in the paint is rebounding. Miami is dead last in the NBA in rebounding per game and near the bottom in nearly every advanced rebounding statistic. Miami’s been a bad rebounding team for years, but it’s been by design. They gave up position on the boards to get back on defense or dart down the court for transition opportunities. The Heat planned on re-establishing and emphasis of rebounding and team leaders have said this season they need to get better.
While Bosh’s numbers have certainly improved, Luol Deng is averaging the fewest rebounds per game of his career and the team has played small without a true center all season. Maybe the recent inclusion of Josh McRoberts in the starting lineup will help things a bit, but he’s averaged more than five rebounds per game just once in his career. Miami isn’t getting those valuable second-chance-points opportunities, leaving money on the table.
This is not a team built to rebound. The lack of a traditional-style center hurts this team in too many ways in the paint, and now the Heat don’t have LeBron to make up for things.
Like we saw in their early season wins, all of this can be overcome when the ball in rubbing the nylon. Miami counted on being a better defensive team and probably a better rebounding one, too, to make up for the predictable growing pains on offense during the LaBrocalypse.
Miami’s 56.6 true shooting percentage is tied for fifth in the NBA. That’s not the problem. When it comes to pace, the Heat are near the bottom of the league, playing faster than only a Knicks team slogging through what they can a triangle offense.
Miami’s 92.13 possessions per game in about eight fewer than the league-leading Warriors. The Heat’s shooting percentage is due partly to the team’s ball movement and patience to find a good shot. In fact, nearly a quarter of Miami’s shot occur in the final seven seconds of the shot clock, per NBA.com. That’s way too much. If the Heat are to improve their pace, they need to find good looks earlier in the possession.**
Miami’s had a problem with spacing this season. If they can fix that, than they should be able to fix the offense. Take a look at this possession against the Hawks.
Look at how much room is between DaMarre Carroll and Luol Deng at the onset of the Wade-McRoberts pick-and-roll. Wade has three defenders between him and the basket with Korver on his hip. Miami scores on the possession, but only because Antic screws up and leaves McRoberts wide open under the rim.
Wade and Deng on the court together is spacing suicide. Sure, Bosh being in would have helped things a bit, but he’s getting the ball on the elbow more than spacing the floor as a three-point threat this season. Even if he was on the perimeter, that still wouldn’t have stopped Carroll from cramming Wade’s running room.
Then there’s the elephant in the room. Now that McRoberts is back, what do you do with Williams, who has played so well in his absence? Does he become a backup 4, biting minutes out of Andersen’s playing time or does he join the crowded rotation on the wing?
Oct 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (center) is pressured by Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (left) and forward Shawne Williams (right) during the first half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
So how do we fix all these things? Ah. Now we have arrived to the fun part.
The Heat could make a trade, swapping Norris Cole and/or Chris Andersen for a big man who can help solve the paint issues. A trade between the Memphis Grizzlies and Heat in which Miami sends Cole and Andersen to the Music City for Kosta Koufos and the Jerryd Bayless trade exception could work.
However that’s dependent on if Memphis likes Cole and thinks he could be a valuable backup to Mike Conley. The Grizzlies may not want to pay Koufos after the season, who is sure to get a decent offer in free agency. If that’s true, flipped him for point guard depth while getting Birdman in return makes sense.
The other thing the Heat can do is scrap the blitz-and-help defense in favor of a more middle-ground system in which the Heat sag on screens and keep guys in front of them rather than jump passing lanes. Miami already ranks near the middle of the league in forcing turnovers, so it’s not like they would be losing much on that end.
This is what the Portland Trail Blazers did last season. It’s a defensive system that treads water, with a low ceiling and high floor. You can maintain an average defense while focusing your efforts on offense.
However this won’t solve Miami’s problems with centers and could make things worse. Miami played around with this less-aggressive style last season on a possession basis, but never truly committed. We may see that again once Andersen is healthy and on the court. If Spo has a coaching identity separate from his Spoisms, it’s his blitzing style of defense.
Miami needs a center. There is no doubt about that. Maybe Andersen and Haslem can switch off vintage games, or Hassan Whiteside ends up being a contributor. Miami’s lack of size is draining on the rest of the team, and they have already begun addressing the situation.
However, that doesn’t help the offense. Spacing and pace is the primary concern here. How do the Heat fix it? If Spoelstra is willing to tinker with his lineups (and we know he always is) then I think I have a fix: Start Shabazz Napier at point guard and move Luol Deng to the bench.
The first part made you smile. The latter made you cringe. Why? Because the Heat need Deng’s defense! Right? Well, that’s the thing. Deng’s reputation as a defensive stalwart precedes him. Check out this defensive lapse in that Hawks game.
Not only is he slow to react to a simple (and predictable) flare up by Korver, but he aimlessly runs into Carroll’s screen. This has happened on more than one occasion this season. He’s still a good defender, and gets tasked with the better offensive player between the opposing 2 and 3, but he’s far from the great on-ball stopper he once was.
If he’s not offering that, then he’s too much of a negative on offense. You saw how teams play off him already. When he does get the ball, he’s slow and isn’t a great ball handler or passer. When he’s double teamed, he tends to freak out and stop his dribble. That disrupts the offense and results in bad passes.
Moving Deng to the second unit would be like what the Warriors have done with Andre Iguodala. Like Iggy, Deng has become a negative on defense but still offers good defense and his experience and understanding of the game could make him leader off the bench.
It would also make room for Shawne Williams, by far Miami’s most willing and able three-point shooter. He has the reputation for being a poor defender, but he’s acclimated himself to Spo’s system and often draws the tough defensive assignment of defending opposing big men so Bosh doesn’t have to. Adding Williams to the starting lineup would immediately improve the spacing and pace at the start of the game. Meanwhile, Napier’s feel for passing would replace the annoying over-dribbling of Cole.
Having a pace-and-space starting unit of Napier, Wade, Williams, McRoberts and Bosh with Chalmers, Deng and Andersen as the first three off the bench creates a much more balanced rotation, a starting unit more apt to set the tone and a deeper bench. This won’t solve all of Miami problem’s, but it’s certainly a start.
*The Timberwolves can blame their poor perimeter defense on the loss of Ricky Rubio and a legion on first and second-year players. The Lakers can blame themselves for fielding the worst roster the franchise has ever assembled and the Jazz are another young team filled with offensive promise but not much defensively. The Heat expected to be a good defensive team.
**It also doesn’t help when Miami is committing a turnover on 16.1 percent of their possessions and not getting second-chance points on the boards. This is something that may be fixed with time as this team continues to gel.