Here’s a number to hang on to during the recent four-game slide for the Miami Heat: 54.
As in “54 percent” or better, which is what the Heat has allowed opponents to shoot over that stretch, a franchise record of dubious distinction. For a team that has always taken pride in its defense, that is definitely a problem. And when the Heat (9-11) take on the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday (12-10) things could get worse.
At first glance, the Suns might have taken a step back this year; they seem a bit less dynamic and less explosive. The reality is that opponents aren’t surprised by Phoenix as much as they were last season, when a team that seemed ready to tank suddenly erupted with designs on making the postseason. They fell just short of the playoffs (being in the Western Conference) but there was optimism for the future.
Fast forward and Phoenix, two games over .500, is fighting to stay in the chase. They’ve added a third point guard (Isiah Thomas) to a dynamic backcourt that includes Goran Dragic (16 points and four assists per game) and Eric Bledsoe (the team’s statistical leader at 16.3 points, 6.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game). While Dragic and Bledsoe start the game, Phoenix head coach Jeff Hornacek rolls out a 3-guard lineup that has disrupted opponents’ defensive schemes in the past. For Miami, that must be a huge concern going into tonight’s matchup.
Opposing point guards have torched Miami’s backcourt this season (Kemba Walker, John Wall, Jeff Teague to name a few). Norris Cole, now back in the lineup, must do a better job of containing opponents and not allowing them to attack the rim with ease. Similarly, Shabazz Napier has to stay in front of Thomas when the team’s second unit is in the game. But perhaps no matchup is more intriguing than Bledsoe and Dwyane Wade. Bledsoe – strong, fast and ridiculously long-limbed – is a do-it-all guard in the same mold as Wade. There’s hope that Wade will feel some competitive fire and try to dominate this particular contest.
Phoenix’s frontcourt, though much less heralded, is very capable. P.J. Tucker is a “3-and-D” player, shooting 42.3 percent from beyond the arc. Markieff Morris is the team’s best rebounder and a solid passer for a big man. Miles Plumlee is far from great but provides intense, constant hustle and has been a big plus for Phoenix. Off the bench, the Suns utilize Gerald Green, a dynamic scorer that can get hot from outside, as well as Marcus Morris (twin brother to Markieff) and Alex Len, a 7’1″ center that is still very raw but could exploit Miami’s lack of size.
Conversely, Miami’s frontcourt will have find a way to take advantage of the Suns. Chris Bosh must take advantage of Plumlee’s enthusiastic defense to force him into foul trouble or hit from outside to limit his rebounding impact. The Luol Deng/Tucker matchup should be an interesting one, as well. Deng has to be an aggressive scorer in order to have an impact on the game. And Josh McRoberts, much-improved as of late, must continue to develop and mesh with his new teammates. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance on occasion but there has to be greater consistency, particularly on defense.
Phoenix might be a little tired following a 1-point, overtime loss to the L.A. Clippers on Monday in which Bledsoe led all Suns scorers with 27 points. Miami’s rotations might be a little different considering they play in Denver on Wednesday, a typically difficult matchup.
The Heat need a win in order to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. It’s not time to panic – yet – but there must be signs of improvement if Miami has hopes of making the playoffs.
The game starts at 9 p.m. EST from the US Airways Center in Phoenix. Check back with All U Can Heat for a recap, post-game grades and analysis.