Heat Can Panic, Or They Can Get Lance Stephenson
By Chris Posada
The panic alarm for the Miami Heat rang loud on Monday when news broke that Chris Bosh had a calf injury that could sideline him a few weeks, while Josh McRoberts has a knee injury that could sideline him for the rest of the season.
Team President Pat Riley, along with Coach Erik Spoelstra, face a task of trying to stabilize the Heat, even as injuries, illness, and inconsistent play ravage the team. You could feel that they, along with the fans, put a lot of stock in this season trying to prove that they are above the player that spurned them in the offseason.
With a win on Tuesday vs. the Nets in Brooklyn, the Heat sit at 12-13. But the Heat find themselves at a crossroads. Assuming Bosh misses two weeks, the Heat has a seven-game home stand against Utah, Washington, Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Memphis, Orlando, before ending 2014 in Indiana. On the surface, you can look at that and think “5-3, maybe 6-2 – depending if the Wizards decide to go out on South Beach Thursday night – and we’re right in this!” Unfortunately, home hasn’t exactly been kind to the Heat, as they are a sad 4-7 in Miami. But even if they finish that stretch 4-4, they would still be a game under .500 and still in the thick of the playoff hunt in the abysmal Eastern Conference, just in time for Bosh’s return.
Presumably.
If Bosh were to sit out longer, or the Heat aren’t able to stabilize themselves into a league average defense, the alternative is dire.
The best way to improve the roster is going to be by the trade. However, to orchestrate a trade, a team needs to have assets that are desirable to other teams, usually talented young players, expiring contracts, or first round picks (unless the Knicks are involved, then logic is thrown out the window). The problem for the Heat is that they don’t particularly have any of those things that another team is chomping at the bit to get.
No matter how you feel about rookies Shabazz Napier and James Ennis, it’s fair to question if they’ve shown enough to draw interest from potential trade partners. But even in the Heat’s current state of flux, they can’t immediately give up young players for a rent-a-player just for the sole purpose of chasing the 6-seed. Miami has the future in mind, and Napier and Ennis are part of that plan.
As for expiring contracts, all the Heat really have to dangle is Norris Cole, who has been trying to adjust to his first season as a starter and possibly auditioning for a job with another team if the Heat really are grooming Napier to be the point guard of the future. Cole has been having an up and down year and hasn’t really given teams any reason to risk parting ways with an asset for him.
Miami is hamstrung by the fact that they may not have a first round pick in the upcoming draft – it’s owed to the Cavaliers (which it now owes to the Sixers) as a part of the sign and trade to acquire You Know Who back in 2010; the Heat keep it if the pick falls in the Top-10. This means they would have to have to bottom out just for the chance to keep the pick, which, if they did, Miami would then owe Philadelphia a pick in the 2016 draft. Throw in the fact that NBA rules prohibit teams from trading picks in back-to-back drafts, the earliest the Heat could trade a first rounder is in the draft of 2017, assuming they keep it in this draft; if not, it’s 2018. Sure, they could easily include a future first round pick, but for some teams looking to trade a valuable asset may not want to wait that long.
That would include a team like the Detroit Pistons, who has Greg Monroe on the verge of testing free agency and has not made any efforts in actually signing with the Pistons long-term. This of course stirred Heat Twitter–following the Bosh injury and McRoberts possibly being lost for the season–into trying to find ways to get Monroe to Miami. Problem is the Heat more than likely don’t have anything of interest for the Pistons to want to ship Monroe down to South Beach, except unless Miami can lure a third team in to help send something of value to Detroit. But that third team is going to want something if they’re going to waste their time.
I threw this three team deal together for Monroe:
Yes, the Pistons get a nice player in Arron Afflalo, while the Nuggets free up some cap space and can see if Ennis and Cole can be role players for them, and the Heat can send $3.3 million to Denver to allow them to buy out Danny Granger. Aside from that, would Denver even agree to this? Would Detroit, who could probably get better offers from teams like Houston, Minnesota, or Phoenix, that can offer young players and picks? Another thing to keep in mind is that any player on a one-year deal with Bird or Early Bird Rights – Monroe qualifies – can veto any deal. Of course, Monroe could give his consent, but would lose his Bird Rights, thus lose a fifth year on a max offer. Why would he risk that?
No, the Heat need to pounce on a team that might be on the verge of desperation. One that rolled the dice on a player, yet haven’t seen anything that has made their risk worth the hassle and are struggling to meet expectations thrusted upon them. And maybe that player needs to be in a place that has a structure that might be able to allow him to live up to his potential, with a support system that will help keep him in check.
Maybe that’s a team like the Charlotte Hornets.
Maybe that’s a player like Lance Stephenson.
(Heat fans, please stop screaming.)
Heat fans have no love lost for Stephenson, as he was a thorn in Miami’s side the last three postseasons, in one way or another.
After a slow start to what was supposed to be a feel good season following an unexpected playoff appearance, and the return of the Hornets name, Charlotte has already been kicking the tires on moving Stephenson and his remaining contract. Apparently they’ve given up on the marriage that some thought was enough for the Hornets to make a leap in the Eastern Conference. Instead, they’ve started 6-18, with the fourth worst offensive rating and seventh worst defensive rating in the league.
Even Stephenson has started off slow, averaging only 10.3 points per game, on 38.7 % shooting. His rebounds and assists have seen little change, so he has been able to contribute in other areas. But this mixture alongside Kemba Walker hasn’t worked out quite like Hornets owner Michael Jordan had thought it would when he shelled out a two-year, $18 million deal, which includes a team option for a third year at $9.4 million. That’s not a bad deal at all, yet Charlotte is still looking into the possibility of moving him.
And one of those teams happens to be Stephenson’s old one, the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers, seeing the Hornets plight, have actually asked for the Hornets to include a first round pick along with Stephenson. How crazy is that? Pacers president Larry Bird has basically said “Sure, we’ll take him off your hands. But it’s going to cost you.” It’s almost like Bird and Stephenson plotted this from the beginning.
(How great would that be? That would be one way for Bird to get revenge on Jordan for making him play those marathon games of “HORSE” back in the early 90s.)
The Hornets would be foolish to do that deal. A team that’s currently floundering giving up what could end up being a lottery pick just to get rid of a player they don’t think is a fit anymore? You might as well fire the front office. Besides, what would the Pacers even offer? Chris Copeland? George Hill? Rodney Stuckey?
But if they do want to move Stephenson, why can’t the Heat wiggle their way into the discussion? The Heat wouldn’t need to ask for a pick, as they would be able to take that contract off their hands, while giving Charlotte a chance to try again next summer. Yes, the Heat can’t offer anything sexy, but they could offer something that allows them to rekindle some of last season’s magic, while clearing some cap space. Something like this:
Let’s throw in the future first rounder that either comes to them in 2017 or 2018, as well as that $3.3 million to buy out Granger, the Hornets will free up $4 million in space for next summer, as well as regain a player that was a big part of their playoff run last season. Although McRoberts could possibly miss the season, having him under team control for the next three years at a lesser annual rate than Stephenson, combined with the fact that the salary cap looks to be jumping up at a rapid pace, means they will still be in position to be a playoff team next season, while adding pieces to the roster.
As for the Heat, they roll the dice on a talented young player that just needs someone to give him a push in the right direction. He’s an above average rebounder from the backcourt that can also help cover opposing wings – two things the Heat have suffered with, so far. He can muscle up with small forwards and has the knack to get under the skin of the opposition. Granted, a backcourt of Stephenson and Mario Chalmers together in the second unit could be such a great or glorious disaster, but that’s something that could be managed (I think).
Miami’s starting five, when Bosh is healthy, would be small – Napier, Wade, Stephenson, Luol Deng, and Bosh, but the Heat often try to play those small lineups to help create mismatches. Unless they choose to have Stephenson come off the bench, but you would have to believe he would be in the lineup at the end of games.
The one question would be taking on his salary. Remember, his contract ends at the end of next season, since the third year is a team option. If the marriage doesn’t work, the Heat cut bait, and free up $9 million to play with in the summer of 2016. If it works out, the salary cap’s likely increase will make the deal look like a bargain, and still allow them to bring players on board.
Would something like this get approved by the Hornets? Would the Heat even try it? Who knows? I’m the not running either team. But someone like Stephenson on a team in the situation that Charlotte finds themselves in might be something that could be an advantage to the Heat. No, this wouldn’t make the Heat a favorite in the East, but it would allow them to remain in the heart of the conference playoff race for the next two years, and be an interesting foe in the playoffs for teams like the Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, and Wizards.
But the important thing is that it’s not time to panic. Not yet. Riley still has cards on the table in play. However, if he does panic, there are worse ways to do it than taking a chance on Lance Stephenson.