Luol Deng’s Decision Could Determine the Miami Heat’s Offseason
By Wes Goldberg
Last summer, the Miami Heat reacted to LeBron James leaving by signing contracts that came off the books in two years. The plan was to tough out a couple of competitive seasons and be back in position to sign an All-Star in the vaunted free agency class of 2016. Within months, Pat Riley‘s business plan took a pivot thanks to the discovery of Hassan Whiteside and the acquisition of Goran Dragic. Both of them will likely demand maximum contracts, giving Riley three max deals he needs to plan for.*
So this is the core of players the Heat will be attempting to get back in the title race with. The only exception could be Luol Deng, who has an opt-out clause this offseason and, depending on what he does, could tip some dominoes that could change the undercurrent of the roster.
If he opts in, Deng would be on the books for about $10 million next season. Add that money to the maximum contract the Heat will pay Dragic and Miami will only have the smaller mid-level exception to use in free agency, something that would carry severe luxury tax implications. Paying a player, say Gerald Green or Jared Dudley, the $3.4 million tax payer mid-level exception could result in owner Micky Arison spending at least $10 million in luxury tax penalties to carry that additional player. As we saw with Mike Miller, he’s not partial to doing that even for a title contender.
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If Deng opts out, though, Miami could have a small amount of cap room** available to make a move. That small cap fissure could tempt Riley to deal rotation players like Josh McRoberts, Mario Chalmers or Chris Andersen to create even more cap space and make a play for a key free agent. The Heat could be looking at more than $10 million in cap space if Deng opts out and they move two of those three guys.
That could put the Heat in position to make a bid for potential free agents like Monta Ellis, Danny Green, DeMarre Carroll, Jared Dudley, Gerald Green, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Josh Smith.
But is signing one of those players worth losing Deng and two key role players? If the decision is between Deng, Chalmers and McRoberts or one of the aforementioned free agents, Miami would be better off with the former. Yep, getting someone like Carroll or Ellis would be exciting, but it would create more holes on an already flawed roster. And who among those potential free agents would be willing to sign a one-year deal so that the Heat can maintain some cap flexibility for next season?
Luckily for the Heat, they are in position for a top 10 pick in the NBA Draft. That pick could help them fill either an existing or future need. However, we know Riley doesn’t want to rely on a rookie to start in Deng’s place, and would prefer any rookie come off the bench as a situational role player.
Even though $10 million is a steep price for Deng, who averaged career lows in points, rebounds and assists per game this past season, the Heat would be better off if he opts in. That would maintain the existing integrity of the roster with the opportunity to add an impact player with the projected no. 10 pick.
*Chris Bosh is already signed to a five-year maximum contract, the same deal Dragic is likely to sign this off-season. Re-signing Hassan Whiteside will probably be Miami’s top priority in 2016, rather than chasing outside candidates.
**Roughly $2.2 million before the luxury tax apron, accounting for the no. 10 overall pick and existing cap hits.