Look, if it were up to me, the editor of this fine site, the Miami Heat would be making Kansas small forward Kelly Oubre the 10th overall pick in the NBA Draft Thursday night. As I’ve said many times (like here, here, and here), Oubre can walk in to the Heat’s rotation and defend at a high level and hit open jumpers right away. He’s a potential transition nightmare with his long arms wiper-blading in between passing lanes and quickness with the dribble. He fits in and could be a great complement to Hassan Whiteside in the future if things pan out.
But, hey, it’s not just up to me. In fact, I was the only one to even make Oubre my first choice (more on that in a sec). As judge, jury and executioner here, I’ve decided to make AllUCanHeat.com a democracy. Therefore, every writer got a say in who we officially backed for the NBA Draft.
Writers chose three prospects, ranking them in order from first choice to third. I made a bank of players based on who most mock drafts had available at no. 10. Those players included Oubre, Stanley Johnson (Arizona), Frank Kaminksy (Wisconsin), Devin Booker (Kentucky), Cameron Payne (Murray State), Myles Turner (Texas), Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Arizona).
Here is how the voting broke down.
As you can see, Devin Booker pulled a Magic Johnson circa 1990 and won by dominating the second place voting.*
Why is that?
I imagine my constituents feel the same way about Booker as I do. As the best 3-point shooter in the draft, he fits exactly what the Heat need, who finished near the bottom of the league in 3-point shooting last season. He’s got a knack for getting open and, at 18, will only get better.
But how much better?
That’s the thing with Booker. He has a nice frame, but isn’t very long–one of the more important attributes in top-flight NBA defenders. He seems limited on that end of the court, and so his ceiling isn’t as high as someone like Stanley Johnson (three first choice votes) or Oubre (my first choice). If the Heat are looking for a future All Star, they may have to draft someone with more potential at no. 10.
However, those same guys with more potential also have a much lower floor. What if Oubre and Johnson aren’t the next Paul Georges and Jimmy Butlers? What if they are just the next Wesley Johnson? It can be anywhere near and in between, and the Heat are not in position to bust on this pick, what with a bazillion of their next gazillion first-round picks being sent away in trades.
Drafting Booker isn’t the safest pick like, say, drafting Sam Dekker would be–who stands firmly between his floor and his ceiling with bags over his shoes as to not get the carpet dirty and his arms outstretched to touch the roof–but he’s a safe pick. We know he can shoot. We know he has time to learn. We know their is always a place in the NBA for shooters. Just ask Anthony Morrow.
Booker would give Erik Spoelstra an immediate presence to space the floor, and could plug into the starting lineup to give Wade and Whiteside more room to work near the basket.
The Heat can’t afford to be wrong Thursday and it seems–and the All U Can Heat staff agrees–that they can’t go wrong by drafting Booker.
*Final tally: Booker with 13 points, Johnson with 11 points, Oubre with six points, Payne with three points, Wisconsin badgers with a point apiece.
**Since Ross, who pays a lot of attention to these things, was the only one to even include Cameron Payne, I asked him why he thought the Heat should take him. This is what he said: “There’s precipitous drop in talent at about the 7th pick. What’s waiting for the Heat at ten, to me, feels like a bunch of the same guys: wings with limited offensive ability, or undersized power forwards pretending to be small forwards. The one guy who sticks out to me is Cameron Payne. I feel he has the highest ceiling among the guys who will be drafted late in the lottery. Which ever team drafts Payne, in my opinion, is getting him at a discount because he played at Murray State. He’s a better shooter than either Russell or Mudiay, who will both go before him in this draft, and passing-wise there isn’t much of a drop off between him and Russell. Similar to Russell Westbrook, he was a late bloomer in high school, but he filled it up for a really good Murray State team during his freshman and sophomore seasons. Payne has huge hands and a 6’7″ wingspan. He’s a menace in passing lanes.”
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