Measuring Chris Andersen’s Decline By the Numbers
Once upon a time, Chris Andersen played a huge role on the Miami Heat as their defensive energy bunny who grabbed rebounds while looking like the drummer to a hardcore rock & roll band. Fast forward to today, and many experts consider Andersen old and washed up, but the numbers may tell a different story.
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During the Heat’s 2012-13 finals run, Andersen made a huge impact, and was arguably the team’s most valuable player outside of the Big Three. Per 36 minutes in the 2012-13 playoffs, Andersen averaged 15.2 points and 9.0 rebounds while shooting a league leading 80.7 percent from the field.
Andersen may not seem like a big addition, but at the time, he was an obvious increase over Joel Anthony, who was the Heat’s center the previous year. According to 82games.com, in the 2012-13 regular season, Andersen had the fourth highest simple rating (as seen below). Per 48 minutes that season, the Heat were 3.4 points better defensively with Andersen on the floor.
Courtesy of 82Games.com
Many fans will tell you that Andersen is no where near the player he used to be, but the numbers do not agree. Surprisingly, Andersen has continued to make a positive impact. Dan Feldman of NBC Sports recently wrote about the the difficulty of trading Andersen due to his “decline.”
"Dumping Andersen and Chalmers won’t be easy. Andersen turns 37 next month and has shown signs of decline. Chalmers is coming off the worst season of his career. The Heat would probably have to include a sweetener to unload either."
Andersen slowing down is a common misconception, as the 37-year-old veteran continues to produce, especially on defense. Last season, Andersen’s per 48 minutes, the Heat were 5.5 points better defensively with Andersen on the court.
However, there was a slight decrease in Andersen’s defensive real plus or minus over the past two years. In 2014, he ranked fifth in the league in defensive real plus or minus among all power forwards, but in 2015 he dropped to 17.
Where Andersen shows the biggest decline is on offense. He was never considered a scorer, but at one point, he played a very Tyson Chandler-isk role on the Heat, proving to be a good option for put-back dunks and alley-oops. From 2014 to 2015, Andersen’s offensive plus or minus dropped from 0.19 to -2.08, which had him ranked 69 among all power forwards.
In Andersen’s defense, the huge drop off on offense could be from the lack of help surrounding him. Not only did the Heat lose LeBron James, but they also spent most of last season without Chris Bosh. It’s also worth noting that most of Andersen’s per game stats remained relatively the same (as seen in the info graph below).
Courtesy of NBA.com
Andersen has also remained an efficient scorer in the paint. From 8 feet or closer, Andersen shot 64.4 percent last season; very similar to his 60.4 percent he shot back in 2013 (per NBA).
So, all-in-all, Andersen doesn’t seem to have slowed down as much as others would have you believe. Defensively, his impact seems to be pretty consistent. Offensively, different numbers tell different stories, but with all the changes to the Heat’s roster, their may be too many variables to make a confident conclusion.