There is a lot of hype surrounding rookie Justise Winslow, but just how much Miami Heat fans will see of him is still to be determined.
Miami Heat fans have been waiting since draft night to see Justise Winslow take the court, but how much playing time will the 10th overall pick actually get?
Winslow’s combination of athleticism, size and defensive intensity makes him one of the few rookies with serious star potential. There was actually a time when experts thought Winslow would be selected by the New York Knicks with the fourth overall pick.
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Since being drafted, the only time fans had a chance to watch Winslow was during the NBA Summer League. Unfortunately for the Heat rookie, he struggled offensively, shooting 33.8 percent from the field, and 31.2 percent from long range. He also looked sloppy, averaging two turnovers per contest.
A particularly ugly game came on July 5, against the Brooklyn Nets, where he shot 3-of-10 from the field, 0-of-5 on 3’s, and he recorded five turnovers in 31 minutes. It’s only summer league, which should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but his mediocre July performance was our only chance to watch him play at a somewhat NBA level.
Winslow definitely didn’t have the summer we expected offensively, but his athleticism and defensive capabilities are undeniable. There’s no doubt that Winslow will be an impact player, especially on defense, but unfortunately for him, his playing time rests in the hands of Dwyane Wade (or, should I say, the knees of Dwyane Wade).
If the three-time champion is forced to miss time due to an injury, Winslow will probably be a huge benefactor of those minutes. Wade getting hurt has become almost a guarantee considering he hasn’t played in 70 games in a single season since 2011.
Along with Wade, the Heat have Gerald Green, Luol Deng and Josh Richardson, who could all split time on the wings. Needless to say, Winslow will have to earn his playing time.
Gerald Green is a journeyman, who rejuvenated his career with the Phoenix Suns, and proved himself a dependable catch-and-shoot target. Green is a career 36.8 percent 3-point shooter, but he’s always been known as a defensive liability, which has is why Green’s spent most of his career riding the bench.
Deng, a two-time All-Star, has been held back due to numerous injuries, but he’s proven to be a solid defender and a capable 3-point shooter, something the Heat desperately lacked last season.
Winslow will have to fight for playing time with two proven NBA role players, but both of these players are most likely on the decline; which could open a window for Winslow if he develops quickly.
When looking at just 10th overall picks in the past, most players get anywhere from 10-20 minutes a game, which is a fair range to expect for Winslow. Also, because the Heat will most likely be contending for a championship (or at least a top-four seed), Winslow will only play if he proves himself valuable. Normally, a top-10 pick is selected by a pedestrian team, which allows the rookie to get ample playing time, but on the Heat, Winslow will not receive charity minutes.
There are several variables that could factor into Winslow’s playing time. The combination of position depth, Wade’s health and Winslow’s offensive development, makes it almost impossible to predict the rookie’s court time. Spoelstra’s rotations can be inconsistent and, so too, could Winslow’s playing time.