Salary cap limits the Miami Heat’s ability to retain Luol Deng and Joe Johnson

This is the second in a three part series examining the Miami Heat’s salary cap and off-season.

In the last article, I examined how the Miami Heat can re-sign Hassan Whiteside and Dwyane Wade. In this article, I examine the possibilities for retaining Luol Deng and Joe Johnson.

I  previously showed how the Heat can retain Dwyane Wade for $17.5 million and Hassan Whiteside for $20 million.

We also discussed how the Heat can renounce their rights to a player. In so doing, the player’s cap hold is removed.

To maximize cap room, we assume the Heat renounce rights to all unsigned players except Tyler Johnson.

The Heat just extended a $1.2 million qualifying offer to restricted free agent Tyler Johnson. Thanks to an obscure provision in the salary cap rules known as the Gilbert Arenas provision, other teams are limited in how much they can offer Johnson. For the first year of a contract, another team can only offer Johnson the mid-level exception for $5.9 million.

In addition to retaining the rights to Johnson, the Heat will have to use cap holds for an additional three potential players. The salary cap rules state that a team must have salary and cap holds for at least 12 players. If teams have salary and cap holds for fewer than 12 players, a cap hold is added at the amount of the rookie minimum salary for every player fewer than 12.

This leaves the Heat with $4.4 million in cap room.

Between Luol Deng and Joe Johnson, Deng has to be a higher priority for the Heat. Deng likes the Heat and might take a pay cut to play for them. However, Deng’s play last year and the rising cap have increased his value. Deng can get at least $12 million on the open market.

Deng is likely looking for one last big payday. An offer of $4.4 million is not going to cut it. To offer Deng more, the Heat would have to find a trade partner for Josh McRoberts and his $5.8 million salary. Trading McRoberts would allow the Heat to offer Deng up to $10.2 million.  A  two year, $20 million contract, with player option for the second year might just be enough to keep Deng in a Heat uniform.

Can the Heat find a trade partner for Josh McRoberts? Over the past two years, McRoberts has been oft injured and, when not injured, has not played well. Of course, McRoberts did have a 19-point game this season and has a unique skill set. The Heat don’t have a sweetener like a draft pick to include with a McRobert’s trade. The Heat have already given away all the draft picks they are allowed. But, McRoberts is sufficiently skilled, like Mario Chalmers was, that the Heat might not need a sweetener.

More from Heat Free Agency

• Heat should target Kelly Olynyk, three more former players to round out roster
• Best remaining free agents to fill out the Miami Heat’s roster
• Goran Dragic reveals if he wants to return to the Miami Heat
• Miami Heat could revisit these former players in free agency
• 3 Shocking free agent signings that actually make sense for the Miami Heat

But a McRoberts trade will be hard to get done until after free agency. This leaves the Heat one last option: They could waive McRoberts and stretch his remaining $11.8 million of salary over five years. This would result in a $2.4 million salary cap hit and give the Heat about $8 million to sign a free agent.

With Deng looking for $12 million or more, it’s hard to see him signing for a $4 million discount. Additionally, Riley wants to chase whales in 2017, so he will want to minimize salary obligations going into next year.

Finally, if the Heat keep McRoberts one more year, it’s possible he turns into the player the Heat thought they signed in 2014.

If the Heat don’t trade or waive McRoberts and can’t afford Deng, they can offer Johnson up to $4.4 million for one year or the mid-level exception. Johnson’s market value is unclear, and while he played well in 24 regular season games for the Heat, he disappeared in the playoffs. This year was one of his worse statistically and he is going to be 35 in a few days.

Johnson has made a lot of money over his career–he’s actually made more money than Wade–and has indicated that he likes living in Miami and the Heat culture. Therefore, it’s reasonable to think Johnson could sacrifice a few million to stay with the Heat.

Prediction: McRoberts and Johnson stay with the Heat, while Deng signs elsewhere.

Related Story: Pros and cons to re-signing Deng, Johnson

In the third and final article in the series, we look at how the Heat can fill out their roster and predict the most likely Heat 2016-17 roster.

All salary cap figures via spotrac.com