Does free agent Dion Waiters make sense for the Miami Heat?

With an opening at guard, should the Miami Heat sign the polarizing Dion Waiters?

With the bulk of free agents having decided where to play next season, only a few remain. Among the bigger names is Dion Waiters and, according to the Associated Press, the former Oklahoma City Thunder guard is interested in playing for the Miami Heat.

Waiters, 24, was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers fourth overall in the 2012 draft out of Syracuse. He played his first two-and-a-half seasons there before getting traded to the Thunder.

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Even though he’s been an inconsistent NBA player, Waiters stepped up in these last playoffs, shooting 37.5 percent from three-point range and playing the best defense on his career.

If you buy that Waiters has turned the corner, he could be a valuable piece to a playoff contender.

Should the Heat go after the guard who, when entering the NBA, was compared to Dwyane Wade?

Contract

With Wade’s departure to the Chicago Bulls, the Heat have nearly $20 million to spend on free agents. This off-season has seen some questionable contracts, but such is life when the cap spikes to $94 million.

So how much can a guard like Waiters get on this market? A comparably maddening players such as Evan Turner signed for four years, $70 million, or $17.5 million per year. If that’s the contract Waiters is looking for, the Heat would likely have to pass.

But Waiters has been a free agent all this time, and his services don’t seem to be in high demand. The Heat should be able to get him for less, say something around $12-$15 million per season. If Miami can ink Waiters to the lower end of that spectrum on a two-year deal, there is real value there.

Of course, that would mean not matching the Brooklyn Nets’ offer of $50 million over four years for Tyler Johnson. If the Heat are willing to match Johnson, but can get Waiters at a similar deal, the question then becomes “Who would you rather have?”.

Fit

On one hand, Johnson is a fan favorite, a hustle guy, defends well and can hit open three’s. On the other hand, he went undrafted two years ago, has had injury concerns and could have conceivably peaked already.

On the other hand, Waiters is wildy frustrating. His confidence is his greatest strength but also his biggest weakness. There is a certain Mario Chalmers-like quality to him, but he’s a looser cannon without the championship pedigree. However, he was a lottery pick and has times–such as these last playoffs with the Thunder–when he flashes tremendous potential. Has he reached his ceiling? No. Can he? Your guess is as good as mine.

With Wade gone, Waiters could conceivably become the starting shooting guard, though I like him more as a sixth man coming off the bench behind the more Heat-minded Josh Richardson. With Joe Johnson and Luol Deng gone, the Heat are facing  a depth problem, and Waiters could be a fix.

Chances: 6/10

I rather like Miami’s chances of making this happen. Looking at the best players available, Waiters is among the best. As for the shooting guards available, it’s Waiters and J.R. Smith. Between the two, Waiters is the better fit simply because you cannot put The Pipe in South Beach. No bueno.

At 24 years old, Waiters is the same age as Tyler Johnson but could offer more potential. He fits within Miami’s new window, with guys like Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Richardson forming the team’s young core.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ve been talked into Dion Waiters.