Goran Dragic can be an All-Star this season

Comparing Miami and Phoenix

A simple yet effective way of forecasting how Dragic may fare this season is the usage rate–a measure of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he is on the floor.

The 2013-14 season represented Dragic’s last full season in Phoenix. It was a genuine breakout season, resulting in Dragic making the All-NBA Third Team and receiving the NBA’s Most Improved Player award.

That year with the Suns, Dragic had a usage rate of 24.5 percent. In Miami last season, his rate was 21.9 percent.

Dragic’s scoring average for 2013-14 in Phoenix was 20.3 points per game, compared to 14.1 points per game for the Heat last season. This represents a significant drop.

Partnering the backcourt with a high volume ball-handler in Wade is a significant reason for the lower usage and production of Dragic. As Spoelstra said, Dragic wants to play fast and attack. It’s quite difficult to do this without the ball in your hands and standing in the corner.

Like the Heat this season, the forecast for the Suns in 2013-14 was not rosy. However, with Dragic as the driver of the team, they ended up with 48 wins, narrowly missing the playoffs in a brutal Western Conference. Dragic excelled even further during the 38 games the team was missing fellow ball-handler Eric Bledsoe. His usage rate rose to 26.5 in those games, accompanied by 22.1 points per game.

Many comparisons can be made between this coming season and Dragic’s breakout in Phoenix. Minus a fellow dominating ball-handler, Dragic should excel, and his numbers should return to something similar to what he posted in his breakout season.

Next: Without Wade