Already in a delicate spot with form and injuries, the Heat’s upcoming schedule could very well determine the fortunes of their season.
The Miami Heat enter a very tenuous stage of the season. They are faced with a stretch of games whereby six out of the next seven are on the road. They will be without starters Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow for the immediate future. There was update on Waiters’ status just today.. With a 6-12 record, this stretch of games could very easily make or break the season. And it certainly ain’t an easy stretch. Back to back nights on the road in Denver and Utah and a trek to Portland. And soon after, visits to Atlanta and the defending champions Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Heat were rapt to welcome back Wayne Ellington to lineup in their most recent loss to Boston. Ellington missed the first 16 games due to a pre-season thigh contusion. The Heat can definitely use Ellington and his career 38 percent shooting from three-point range. Presently, the Heat are 25th in three-point shooting at 32.9 percent. The immediate absence of Waiters likely will be felt having averaged 18.8 points per game over the last nine games. Ellington’s return though will help offset his absence. And having a game under his belt will be heartening for the Heat coaching staff.
If the Heat are to successfully navigate through this tough part of the schedule, a few aspects of their game will need to be addressed. The Heat’s major issue all season has been scoring, for which they currently rank 28th in the league. Complimenting the poor scoring is a 42.5 percent clip from the field, making them good for 27th in the league.
Presently, the Heat rank first in the league for drives to the rim. These are defined as any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks. In fact the Heat have two players ranked inside the top 10 in the league in drives per game. Point guard Goran Dragic is ranked second behind Boston’s Isaiah Thomas with 13.0 drives per game. Shooting guard Waiters is ranked 10th with 10.6 per game.The problem with these drives is that although the Heat leads the league in volume, they rank dead last in conversion. Currently, field goals attempted with these drives are returning a 39.9 percent conversion rate – last in the league. Granted, it may sound impressive that the Heat are making this many attacks to the rim per game. But at the other end of the scale is the league leader in scoring, the Golden State Warriors.
Ranking last, the Warriors currently complete just 16.9 drives per game. However, the Warriors also rank 28th in the league for passes as a percentage of drives. In other words, they will pass on 25.3 percent of their drives. In contrast, the Heat are ranked first with 37.9 percent of their drives resulting in a pass. This clearly indicates that the opposing defence are clogging the lanes and sagging off the shooters whenever, for instance, Dragic or Waiters drives to the hoop. With the Heat’s scoring and shooting percentages as they are currently constructed, it is a very wise gameplay by opposing teams.
Conversely, with the Warriors loaded with scorers and shooters, their drives to the hoop are more likely to receive single coverage rather than a convergence from other defenders on the floor. It’s no surprise at all that the Warriors are presently ranked first in secondary assists, otherwise known as ‘hockey assists’. With 10.3 per game, it completely dwarfs the Heat’s total of 3.1 per game, which is last in the league.
Hockey assists are an excellent way to demonstrate ball movement and how effectively a team can execute its offence efficiently. As has also been seen with their driving possessions, the Heat simply have a lot of dead possessions. A lot of one-on-one, individual attempts attempts to score which are simply not coming to fruition efficiently enough.
Another problem with this volume of drive attempts per game is the presence of Hassan Whiteside. With his attributes suited close to the rim and playing 32.7 minutes per game, Whiteside’s role isn’t overly conducive to a playing style relying on a heavy amount of drives, be it to score or kick out to a shooter. And further to that, if Whiteside does receive the ball, his 0.8 assists per game don’t exactly improve the teams ball movement.
On paper, those currently healthy on the Heat roster – Dragic, Ellington, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson – are all more than capable of converting from the perimeter. However, the present approach is clearly not working.
Increased ball movement and less isolation-ball represents a step in the right direction for a team lacking confidence and an identity. With a brutal schedule ahead, lets hope the Heat can incorporate this before the season gets out of hand.