When should the Miami Heat trade Goran Dragic? It depends on what they can get back for him.
There’s been a lot of conversation about whether or not the Miami Heat should trade Goran Dragic, rumors from NBA sources not withstanding, but one question has largely gone unanswered: What could the Heat even get in return for Dragic?
The answer to that question will determine whether or not the Heat decide to trade its starting point guard. According to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Ira Winderman, who spoke with an anonymous NBA scout, the right team may be willing to pay a first-round pick, and more, for Dragic.
"“They could get a great draft pick,” the scout, who required anonymity as he spoke about another’s team’s player under contract, said. “I think you can get a first and, I don’t know when, something else in the draft. Are you going to get the fifth pick in the draft? No.“I’m not sure about multiple firsts. I think the second one would have to be stretched long into the future. But I think you can get a first and a second. You certainly could get, at minimum, a first.”"
The other question is when such a trade would happen. The Heat have three options in this respect: (1) Trade him soon, months before the Feb. 23 trade deadline, (2) trade him at the deadline or (3) wait until this offseason, possibly during the draft, to move him.
Let’s go through the pros and cons one at a time, then.
1. Trade him now
For tanking reasons, it makes sense to move Dragic sooner rather than later. The Heat are clearly better with Dragic–they are 1-4 this season without him playing–so trading him could be a move to sink the rest of the season.
The Heat already have the third-worst record in the NBA, but trading Dragic could increase their chances of landing the top overall pick in the draft (something the Heat have never had).
The con to trading him? Well, there are two reasons. First, trading Dragic puts Josh Richardson and/or Tyler Johnson at point guard. Both have been asked to develop more point guard skills, but aren’t ready to handle the position full time. Also, they may both be better suited as 2-guards, so playing them at the point the rest of the season could stagnate their development.
The second reason is that trading Dragic is an obvious step back, and a free agent–say, Blake Griffin–may not be willing to sign on with the Heat without a legit point guard on the roster. This is a long shot either way, but worth considering.
2. Trade him at the deadline
Teams are sometimes willing to overspend at the trade deadline, so if the Heat are fielding offers from now until then, a team pressed by the deadline may end up overpaying for Dragic. The Heat may be able to get its first-round pick, plus that extra pick the scout was talking about.
The Heat may not have to actively tank in order to be in the running for the top overall pick, so waiting for the right deal may not hinder its chances at landing a Markell Fultz, for instance.
3. Wait until the offseason
If Pat Riley thinks he can land a big free agent such as Griffin or Gordon Hayward this summer, and would prefer to trade the Heat’s top-five pick for another star, then waiting until the offseason to make a decision on Dragic makes sense.
This would be similar to what the Boson Celtics did in 2007. The Celtics, who finished with one of the worst records in the NBA, didn’t land one of the top two picks (which turned out to be Greg Oden and Kevin Durant). So, instead, they traded the No. 5 pick, a young Al Jefferson and an assortment of other players and picks for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to add to Paul Pierce.
Had the Celtics landed a top-two pick, they may have taken Durant, moved Pierce, and gotten even younger.
Riley could be holding out for a similar move. For instance, a starting lineup of Dragic, Justise Winslow, Carmelo Anthony (if the New York Knicks were open to trading him for a top-five pick), Hayward/Griffin and Hassan Whiteside.
If the Heat see a potential franchise savior in the draft, they could hope to land him. If they don’t, and strike out in free agency, they can start the full rebuild this summer when it’s the last option they have.