Miami Heat point guard Goran Dragic is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Could Pat Riley still decide that the time is right to trade him?
When the Miami Heat traded for Goran Dragic back in 2015, it was with the notion that he would be a pivotal part of a post-LeBron James era resurgence by the franchise. The idea was that Dragic, along with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, would form a new big three in Miami. One that included a dynamic starting backcourt, and the perfect outlet option in the form of Bosh’s silky jumper.
None of that ever came to fruition. Bosh’s blood clots have put a halt to his career, and it’s unsure whether he’ll play another minute of NBA basketball. Wade, feeling slighted by years of taking discounts to stay in Miami, decided that enough was enough. His move to the Chicago Bulls was surprising, but in hindsight, probably shouldn’t have been.
That leaves Dragic as the only member of the new big three still on the Heat. And though he’s enjoyed a career renaissance this season, the team as a whole has struggled. Which leaves Pat Riley and his staff in a precarious position. Should they trade Dragic now, to a team desperate for a point guard? Or, do they stand pat (no pun intended), and see what hand they are dealt this off-season?
Heat fans seem to be evenly split on the matter. Some think that Dragic has enough left in the tank to be the team’s lead guard for years to come. Others don’t. I lean towards the latter’s line of thinking. Riley should look to move his starting point guard, and do so by the upcoming trade deadline. Allow me to explain why.
Opposing View: A case for keeping Goran Dragic
Dragic’s trade value will never be higher
Thanks to an improved midrange game, and a career-best rate from three, Dragic is playing the best basketball he has since arriving in Miami. He’s averaging 19.6 points, to go with four rebounds and six assists per game, while shooting almost 42 percent from three, and 80 percent from the foul line.
With numbers that impressive, Dragic’s stock will never be higher than it is now. He turns 31 in May, and with each added year, he will continue to lose more of the subtle athleticism that makes him special.
Although he’s never been the high-flyer some of his counterparts are, Dragic’s athleticism manifests itself in another way: finishing around the basket. And when looking at his numbers in that facet, we’re already starting to see signs of his deterioration. Dragic’s shooting within five feet is still at an impressive 59 percent, but that number has steadily decreased in recent years. In 2016, it was 63 percent. The season prior, 68 (which was best in the NBA among guards attempting at least four shots near the rim).
As he continues to get worse around the basket, Dragic will need to maintain his current three-point shooting to remain effective. I have my doubts as to whether that’s plausible. Throughout his career, Dragic has made it a habit of having one really good year from deep, and following it up with seasons of mediocrity. (We are just one year removed from Dragic shooting 31 percent from three.) It’s possible that this season is merely a blip, and his career average of 36 percent is actually who he is.
If that’s the case, then it’s clear why Riley should make the move now. Rather than wait for Dragic to regress further, why not be proactive and get the biggest possible yield you can?
Trading Dragic would all but ensure a higher draft pick
Another benefit of trading Dragic is that it would lead to more losses. I know, weird juxtaposition. But it’s the sad truth the NBA doesn’t reward the teams who are muddled in mediocrity.
Your team fought hard and made the playoffs as an eighth seed? Congratulations. Your prize? You get to play either the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Golden State Warriors in the first round (depending on your conference), and then more than likely get swept off the playoff stage.
Aside from that? You also get to pick outside of the lottery (first 16 selections) come draft time, and hope that whoever you take becomes a serviceable starter. Is it possible to land a player you can build around outside of the first 16 picks? Yes, but it’s a lot harder. The worse you are, the better your chances are of drafting a stud.
Between 2008 and 2012, 25 players were selected in the top five (because, math), and 125 were selected in the first round, outside of the top five. Of the players taken in the top five, 36 percent of them went on to make an All-Star team. On the other hand, just 9.6 percent of the players taken outside of the top five received the same distinction.
Losing Dragic would lead to a lot more actual losing by the Heat. Ultimately, it’s what’s best for the future of the franchise. I already know what’s coming next: If you have a good thing in Dragic, how do you know you’ll be able replace his output with a college player? Well, you don’t know. But comfort is provided in that this year’s draft class is heralded as one of the best in recent memory. It’s especially deep in one position, which brings me to my final point.
5 point guards the Miami Heat could target in the 2017 NBA Draft
Here's an early look at the point guard position in the 2017 NBA Draft, and who the Miami Heat could target and who might be the best fit.
The 2017 NBA Draft is very point guard heavy
According to Draft Express‘ most up-to-date mock-up, six of the first 11 players taken in the 2017 NBA Draft will be point guards. That includes the top three picks in Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, and Dennis Smith Jr. Meaning that if there’s one year the Heat will be able to secure their point guard of the future via the draft, it’s this one.
Fultz is a potential superstar, and probably the most surefire thing of any player in his class. He’s athletic, has good size and length, and can do just about anything. Fultz is crafty around the rim, is a good distributor, can score, and is an adept three-point shooter.
Ball, meanwhile, is the best passer in college basketball and his team (the UCLA Bruins), have the most efficient offense in the country. He also has a good understanding of what a good shot is in today’s NBA:
Fun stat: Lonzo Ball has 96 FGs this season. He's hit 46 threes and 49 twos at the rim. He has one FG that's not a three, layup or dunk.
— Rob Dauster (@RobDauster) January 17, 2017
Finally, Smith is the most explosive of the three, often likened to Russell Westbrook. After watching this clip, you’ll understand why.
And that’s just three of them! There’s another three projected to between six and 11, who are all also freakishly talented. One of them (Malik Monk) dropped 47 points against a top 15 defense, in just his 11th career game. I mean, come on.
So, just to recap — by trading Dragic, Miami will all but guarantee they’ll get right back to their losing ways. After all, the team has just reeled off four wins in a row. No Dragic, means more losses, and a higher probability of landing a top three talent in the draft. And the three best talents available are all… what? Point guards.
Next: Miami Heat mid-season player grades
A new, dynamic, young point guard bursting with potential and whatever value the Heat get back in return for Dragic, which should be a lot. I think you’re starting to get it.