NBA Draft: Who the experts predict the Miami Heat will take at No. 14

With the NBA Draft hours away, we round up the final mock drafts from the experts to try to find out who the Miami Heat have the best chance of taking.

There’s wisdom in crowds. See, once upon a time a bunch of people tried to guess the weight of an ox at a county fair. No one guessed correctly. Then some smart guy with way too much time on his hands calculated the average of everyone’s guesses. Turns out the average was the correct weight.  

Let’s take that same approach to see if we can guess who the Miami Heat will draft in a couple hours on Thursday evening. I went around the web and looked at a bunch of mock drafts that had been updated in the last week.

The mock drafts selections are all over the place. Literally, every position from point guard to center is represented. Prospects range from low risk, low reward to high risk, high reward. About the only thing clear from the mock drafts is that the Heat won’t be selecting Markelle Fultz. Still, if we believe in the wisdom of crowds, the Heat will select OG Anunoby.

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Of course, Draft Express, ESPN (Chad Ford), and Bleacher Report have consistently made the most accurate draft predictions. But, there is no consensus selection among these three sources with predictions of Justin Jackson, Donovan Mitchell, and Luke Kennard respectively.

So, It’s time to go out on a limb and make my own prediction. The most respected mock drafts have one of the top ranked guards – Malik Monk, Dennis Smith, or Frank Ntilikina – sliding. I predict Monk is the guard that slides. Both the Knicks and Mavericks need a true point guard as opposed to an undersized shooting guard. So, I predict they take Dennis Smith and Frank Ntilikina at 8 and 9.

The Kings need perimeter scoring, but already have a shooting guard of the future in Buddy Hield. So, they select Zach Collins at 10. The Hornets and Pistons need shooting. So, the Hornets pounce on Monk at 11, while the Pistons go for Kennard at 12. The Nuggets anticipate landing Paul Millsap which leads them to draft Anunoby for his potential as a 3-and-D wing. Thus, the Heat are left to choose between Mitchell, Jackson, and John Collins as the best players available.

The Heat select Donovan Mitchell. He reminds the team too much of Dwyane Wade to pass up.

Mitchell is a 6’3″ guard with a tremendous 6’10” wingspan and elite athleticism. His measurements are reminiscent of a young Wade. He will hound opposing guards on defense with his long arms and is strong enough to switch on to forwards. He could end up being the best guard defender in the class.

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While Mitchell is an explosive jumper off two feet, he is not exceptional off of one. Thus he is not able to get to the rim on his drives as often as you might expect. Still, he improved his perimeter shooting the past season, shooting 35.4 percent from 3-point range on nearly seven attempts per game.

While it’s unlikely Mitchell ever approaches Wade’s level of greatness, he will be a solid addition for the Heat.